THE newest, most detailed investigation into Iraq's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction concluded yesterday that Saddam Hussein could be only "months" away from launching a nuclear bomb.
The in-depth report by the respected, London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) found that the Iraqi leader possesses almost all the technology needed to build atomic weaponry.
All Saddam requires is weapons-grade radioactive material from the international black market or even a friendly state to construct A-bombs within months.
The IISS report does not, according to defence experts, contain a "smoking gun" which the United States could produce to make their case for war compelling.
However, it was broadly recognised yesterday as the most comprehensive study yet of Saddam's stockpile of weapons and secret nuclear programme.
Downing Street described the dossier - called Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction - a Net Assessment - as "highly significant", and a potent reminder to those who oppose a war with Iraq of the danger posed to the world by Saddam.
Tony Blair has committed himself to publishing a government dossier of evidence against Saddam soon, but Downing Street said yesterday the IISS report - which was compiled without access to secret intelligence files - "paints a powerful picture of a highly unstable regime".
The IISS report concludes that Iraq has probably been successful in hiding large stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons from United Nations inspectors, as well as a small number of long-range missiles.
However, it stated that it was hugely unlikely that Iraq had nuclear capability as - even with the exclusion by Saddam of UN weapons inspectors - radioactive warheads would be detectable from the air.
Dr John Chipman, the author of the IISS report, said yesterday his aim had been to sift through the mounds of information about Iraq's weapons capability to ascertain the level of threat Saddam currently poses.
He stressed that there remains gaps in the information available since UN weapons inspectors were forced to leave Iraq in 1998 following significant discoveries.
The report states: -
It is not clear how much the Iraqis concealed from the inspectors in 1998.
It would be "incredible" if there had not been more weapons efforts since then.
Iraq has up to 12 long-range al-Hussein missiles which can fire warheads 650km.
The IISS report also suggests that Iraqi scientists still have the necessary knowledge and experience - and in some cases the materials - to reconstruct biological and chemical weapons programmes.
It says that Saddam has probably retained substantial quantities of material, possibly thousands of litres of anthrax, from his pre-Gulf War stocks.
His experts are thought to be capable of resuming production of such weapons within weeks, using existing civilian facilities.
The dictator probably also has "a few hundred tonnes" of chemical agents to make mustard gas, the deadly sarin nerve gas and VX agent, but the IISS experts said this would not pose a decisive threat because any invading troops would come protected.
However, last night it remained clear that Downing Street was anxious to avoid creating a scenario where the public becomes complacent about the potential threat of biological or chemical warheads.
A spokesman warned against "language fatigue" over descriptions of chemical and biological weapons. He added: "We're obviously not talking about washing powder here."
In terms of delivery, Iraq has no means of building long-range missiles but is thought to have a small number of medium-range missiles. But the report speculates that if Iraq is attacked, Saddam would fire al-Hussein missiles with chemical or biological warheads at Israel in the hope of provoking an Israel-Arab conflagration.
