News International, Pakistan
Iraq could build a nuclear bomb soon if it imports fissile material, but is weaker now on other weapons of mass destruction, a key think-tank said as France stepped up pressure for a UN role in reining Baghdad in.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) added fuel to the debate about a possible US military strike on Iraq with its comments on Monday that gave no clear backing either to US hawks or mainly European doves. French President Jacques Chirac said Iraq should be given a deadline to let UN arms inspectors back or face punishment.
Warning against unilateral action in an interview with the New York Times, he said the United Nations should consider two resolutions, one with a tight deadline for admitting inspectors and a second on possible military action if Baghdad refuses.
Washington blitzed its media at the weekend to try to win support for plans to turf out Iraqi President Saddam Hussein by outlining what US officials said was evidence of Baghdad's programme to make a nuclear bomb.
Yet President George W Bush still faces an uphill task to gain the backing of sceptical friends abroad, including Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien whom he meets on Monday, on top of some cautionary voices at home.
The London-based IISS offered him some extra ammunition by saying that if Iraq acquired enriched uranium with foreign help, it could put a nuclear warhead on a missile capable of hitting Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Israel, Turkey, Jordan and Iran within a year.
But the comments by IISS director John Chipman were followed by a report from the leading think-tank saying Iraq's weapons of mass destruction capacity has declined since the 1991 Gulf War. It said Baghdad did not have nuclear arms and probably lacked means to deliver its residual chemical and biological weapons effectively to cause massive loss of life.
The report also offered no clear support either to US hawks who argue that a preventive strike is an urgent necessity, or to those, mainly in Europe, who advocate continued containment of Iraq and the return of UN weapons inspectors.
"Either course of action carries risks. Wait and the threat will grow. Strike and the threat may be used," it said. The US military said its warplanes attacked an air defence target in a "no-fly" zone in southern Iraq on Monday, the 37th such strike this year, as attacks increase amid speculation of US action to oust Saddam.
Germany also repeated on Monday its opposition to military action. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said Germany would not "click its heels" and follow the United States into war. At home, Washington still has to win over some of its own public, with 68 percent backing removing Saddam through military action but 56 percent believing the United Nations should be given more time to get inspectors back in.
In a weekend media campaign, US officials said they had evidence Iraq had been intensifying its bid for nuclear weapons, including attempting to buy thousands of special aluminium tubes they believed were to be used in devices to enrich uranium. But there have been some cautionary US voices, including Middle East envoy and retired Marine General Anthony Zinni. "There's a hell of a good reason why generals are cautious... Politicians make mistakes, soldiers pay for those mistakes with their blood," Zinni told a Washington conference.
