Australian Broadcasting Corporation
London-based think-tank the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has released a report examining Iraq's capacity to develop weapons of mass destruction.
It found that Iraq could make nuclear weapons within months if it got fissile material but its ability to produce and use weapons of mass destruction is weaker now than before the 1991 Gulf War.
The findings include:
- Iraq does not possess facilities to produce fissile material in sufficient amounts for nuclear weapons.
- It would require at least several years and extensive foreign assistance to build such material production facilities.
- It could probably assemble nuclear weapons within months if fissile material from foreign sources were obtained.
- The country's current interest in radiological weapons is unknown.
- It could divert civil-use radioisotopes or seek to obtain foreign material for a crude device.
- Iraq probably retained substantial growth media and biological weapons agent, perhaps thousands of litres of anthrax, from pre-1991 stocks.
- It is capable of resuming biological weapons agent production on short notice, weeks - from existing civilian facilities and could have produced thousands of litres of anthrax, botulinum toxin and other agents since 1998. Actual stocks are unknown.
- The country's production of viral agents and possession of smallpox are unknown.
Chemical
- Iraq probably retained a few hundred tonnes of mustard gas and precursors for a few hundred tonnes of sarin/cyclosarin and perhaps VX nerve gas from pre-1991 stocks.
- It is capable of resuming chemical weapons production on short notice - months - from existing civilian facilities and it could have produced hundreds of tonnes of mustard gas and nerve agents since 1998. Actual stocks are unknown.
Ballistic missiles
- Iraq probably retained a small force of 650 km range al-Hussein missiles, perhaps around a dozen missiles.
- It does not possess facilities to produce long-range missiles, and it would require several years and extensive foreign assistance to construct such facilities.
- It may have produced some al-Samoud missiles, with ranges up to 200 km.
- It is capable of manufacturing rudimentary chemical and biological weapons warheads, but development of more advanced designs is unknown.
- The country is capable of converting civilian vehicles to mobile launchers.
Other delivery means
- Iraq is capable of delivering chemical and biological weapons in various impact-fuse tactical munitions, including artillery shells, rockets and aerial bombs.
- It could have a few thousand chemical weapons tactical munitions.
- It is capable of delivering biological weapons with simple airborne wet spray devices; development of more advanced devices for wet spray or disseminating dry agent is unknown.
- The military has a small inventory of modern strike aircraft -- MiG-23 and Mirage F1 -- with 750 km combat radius; some ground attack aircraft (Su22, Su24, Su25); helicopters, possible unmanned aerial vehicle based on the L-29 trainer.
- It could also use special forces and "terrorists".
