Dallas Morning News
An independent research group known for its authoritative reports on military capabilities warned Monday that Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein could develop a nuclear bomb within months if he is able to buy or steal weapons-grade nuclear material.
The report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies concluded that Hussein's existing weapons of mass destruction pose a substantial threat and supported President Bush's assertion that Iraq is stockpiling weapons for possible use against neighbors such as Israel and Kuwait.
Director John Chipman said that Iraq already has substantial chemical and biological weapons and may be able to obtain enough enriched nuclear material from friendly countries or through the black market to enable Iraq to quickly build a devastating bomb.
"There is a nuclear wildcard," Chipman said. "If, somehow, Iraq were able to acquire sufficient nuclear material from foreign sources, it could probably produce nuclear weapons on short order, probably in a matter of months."
Chipman, whose group Monday published a 100-page investigation into Hussein's arsenal, warned that the balance of power in the volatile Middle East would be changed overnight if Hussein obtains nuclear capability.
He said the dossier was based on extensive reports by United Nations weapons inspectors, on declassified CIA documents and on interviews with many government sources with knowledge of intelligence estimates.
A spokesman for British Prime Minister Tony Blair, a strong supporter of military action against Iraq, called the new report extremely significant.
Chipman said it is not clear what course should be followed to address the danger posed by Iraq. If nothing is done, the threat will grow, he said. Hussein may also unleash the weapons of mass destruction he already possesses if Iraq is attacked, Chipman said.
The institute's analysis concludes that Iraq will need several years, at least, to develop a nuclear bomb unless enriched weapons-grade material is obtained from a foreign source. But researchers said they could not determine if it would be "two years" or "five or seven years" before Hussein could develop nuclear weapons on his own.
There is far less doubt about Iraq's biological weapons, the report states, indicating that Iraq still has the expertise and industrial capacity to quickly produce them. Iraq may have thousands of liters of anthrax stored for weapons use and could use the anthrax and other biological weapons against advancing U.S. troops, Chipman said.
It is not clear how effective these weapons would be against Israel, however, because delivering them effectively with Iraq's ballistic missiles would not be easy, he said. Nonetheless, a successful strike could still cause "hundreds or thousands" of civilian deaths, he said.
The threat against Israel, which could also be hit by ballistic missiles armed with chemical warheads, is difficult to gauge. The report concludes that Hussein probably has about a dozen Scud missiles, but some analysts believe the actual number is three times higher.
These weapons could also be fired at Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran and Kuwait, Chipman said.
In response to this threat, Israel - believing that an attack from Hussein is a likely response to a U.S-led invasion of Iraq - has substantially upgraded its missile defense capability by installing the Arrow system, said Dennis Gormley, a senior researcher on the project.
"The Arrow is absolutely critical to Israel's national security plans," he said. "In tests, it has performed better than some U.S. systems."
Researchers were unable to determine whether Iraq has produced viral agents that could be used as weapons, and it is also not known whether Iraq has access to small pox that could be used to infect civilians.
On the issue of chemical weapons, Chipman said, Iraq's proven ability to mount chemical warheads onto short-range rockets and artillery would force attacking forces to wear protective equipment. He said this could "complicate" invasion plans.
Chipman said it would not have been difficult for Hussein to use the four years since U.N. weapons inspectors pulled out to rebuild his chemical weapons stocks, which had largely been destroyed in the aftermath of the Persian Gulf War. Accurately estimating the present stocks of these deadly weapons, he said, would be impossible.
