Toronto Star
Iraq could be just months away from building nuclear bombs if it somehow acquired the necessary material from abroad, says a new report from a leading group of defence experts.
But without outside help, Iraq isn't even close to becoming a nuclear power, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies says.
"There is a nuclear wild card," says the 79-page report released yesterday. "If, somehow, Iraq were able to acquire sufficient nuclear material from foreign sources, it could probably produce nuclear weapons on short notice, probably in a matter of months."
The report is the most comprehensive yet on Iraq's "weapons of mass destruction" - its biological, chemical and nuclear capabilities - most of which were initially developed with the help of Western governments and companies.
It comes as U.S. President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair are leading the charge for a "pre-emptive" war on Iraq.
The highly speculative report by the independent think-tank provides ammunition for both sides in the debate.
It argues that Iraq still has significant stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons, is determined to build a nuclear bomb, and would play cat-and-mouse with U.N. weapons inspectors if they were allowed back in. That was enough for Blair to embrace the report through an official spokesperson as "highly significant."
Blair, who faces stiff resistance from his own Labour party about his war plans, has said he'll soon release a file on Iraq's military threat.
But the report also paints a picture of a country whose military might was sharply reduced by the 1991 Persian Gulf War and seven years of U.N. inspections. Iraq's ability to launch chemical and biological weapons is so limited they're unlikely to cause mass casualties if used, it says.
"There's nothing here that makes me want to go to war," said defence expert Paul Beaver, formerly of Jane's Defence Weekly. "I don't think there's enough of a direct military threat from Iraq."
In the end, the report describes a Catch-22 for Western governments.
"Wait and the threat will grow. Strike and the threat may be used," the report says, referring to the chances of Saddam
unleashing his weapons if he knows his days are numbered.
The report, called Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Net Assessment, is a synthesis of reports compiled by U.N experts who inspected Iraq's weapons program after the Persian Gulf War, information provided by defectors, and analysis from defence experts.
The report says Iraq is probably years away from domestically producing a nuclear weapon.
No country has yet been able to acquire the materials for a nuclear bomb on the black market but the possibility exists, the report says.
As far as biological weapons are concerned, the report says Iraq has the industrial capability to produce such agents "quickly and in volume."
