CNSNews.com
Saddam Hussein probably has been successful in stockpiling chemical and biological weapons, and with outside help, Iraq could construct a nuclear bomb within months, a top British think tank said Monday.
A study compiled by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) concluded that Saddam managed to hide some aspects of Iraq's weapons programs from U.N. inspectors before they were kicked out of the country in 1998.
Iraq's stockpiles include chemical and biological weapons and several long-range missiles that could hit targets in Israel and other neighboring nations, the IISS said. In addition, Iraqi scientists have the technical expertise to construct a nuclear bomb, although the country lacks enough enriched uranium to create an atomic weapon.
"Had the Gulf War not intervened, Iraq could have accumulated a nuclear stockpile of a dozen or so weapons by the end of the decade," said IISS director John Chipman.
Chipman said Iraq would require "several years and extensive foreign assistance" to build facilities to create weapons-grade uranium. But if outside countries were to directly provide Iraq with enriched uranium, Saddam could assemble a nuclear weapon "within months."
On Saturday, U.S. officials said Iraq has recently been increasing efforts to obtain materials for nuclear weapons, a charge denied by Baghdad.
The IISS report also noted that Iraq could use other radioactive material to make a "crude radiological device" or dirty bomb.
Iraq has probably has supplies of anthrax and botulism, the IISS report said, and Saddam's regime probably has "hundreds of tons" of mustard gas, sarin and VX nerve gas.
Chipman also said that Saddam managed to conceal long-range missiles from U.N. inspectors.
"Certainly we believe that he has retained a small force of 650 km (400 mile) range Al-Hussein ballistic missiles. Those could hit Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Israel, Iran, Turkey," he said.
Although the impact of a ballistic missile would destroy much of any chemical or biological agent on board, Iraq could also deliver weapons of mass destruction (WMD) using artillery shells or unmanned aircraft.
"The retention of WMD capacities by Iraq is self-evidently the core objective of the regime, for it has sacrificed all other domestic and foreign policy goals to this singular aim," Chipman said. "Sooner or later, it seems likely that the current Iraqi regime will eventually achieve its objectives."
The IISS regularly publishes assessments of the military capabilities of individual countries. The think tank's current research on Iraq started in June and used known information about Iraqi weapons programs and interviews with former weapons inspectors.
Report welcomed
The report is largely in line with previous information released by the U.S. and U.K. governments and details the current state of Iraqi weapons programs, though IISS officials admit that much is unknown. British Prime Minister Tony Blair has promised to publish a dossier on Iraq's weapons programs within the next several weeks, and Blair's official spokesman welcomed the IISS report Monday.
"This is clearly a very serious piece of work ... it paints a powerful picture of a highly unstable regime," the spokesman said.
Blair met with President Bush over the weekend in Camp David, where the two leaders vowed to build an international coalition to halt Iraq's weapons programs.
Blair's attention will now turn to rallying support on the home front.
The annual meeting of the Trade Unions Conference - the British equivalent of the AFL-CIO - opened on Monday, and delegates are expected to pass a resolution urging the UK government to "withhold support" for an American attack on Iraq.
In a speech to the conference on Tuesday, Blair will set out the argument for a tough line on Saddam.
