Deutsche Presse-Agentur - September 9th 2002
Iraq does not have a serviceable nuclear weapon, and the immediate threat posed by its biological and chemical weapons is limited, according to a report published Monday by the well-regarded London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Nevertheless, Iraq's weapons of mass destruction programme remains "the core objective of the regime", according to IISS director John Chipman and it could produce a credible nuclear weapon within "a matter of months" if it obtained fissile material from abroad.
"Sooner of later it seems likely that the current Iraqi regime's objectives will be met," Chipman added, pointing out that it was diverting much of its resources to this end.
The IISS believes Iraq has around a dozen Al-Hussein missiles with a range of 650 kilometres - well in excess of the 10-kilometre allowed Iraq in terms of U.N. resolutions - which could be adapted to carry nuclear, biological or chemical warheads.
These could hit Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Israel, Iran and Turkey.
Iraq also has the expertise to detonate a nuclear device, but lacks the necessary fissile material - highly enriched uranium or plutonium - and does not have the facilities to produce it, the IISS says.
"Against this scenario, however, there is a nuclear wildcard. If, somehow, Iraq were able to acquire sufficient nuclear material from foreign sources, it could probably produce nuclear weapons on short order, perhaps in a matter of months," the IISS report says.
Iraq's current interest in radiological weapons - so-called dirty bombs - in unknown, but it could divert domestic civil-use radio-isotopes, the IISS report says.
Assessment of Iraq's biological weapons capability is difficult, as Baghdad has gone to great lenths to conceal its programme, the IISS says. Iraq probably has thousands of litres of anthrax and is capable of producing other agents within weeks at civilian facilities.
The IISS listed anthrax, botulinum and other agents and said it was not known if Saddam possessed the smallpox virus.
However, Iraq's capacity to deliver biological weapons is limited, relying as it largely does on explosive dissemination of liquid agents.
"To the extent that Iraq has developed more effective delivery mechanisms, such as airborne sprays for wet agents or mechanisms for airborne dissemination of dry agents, the aircraft used to deliver biological weapons against opposing troops would be vulnerable to air defences and opposing air forces," the IISS says.
The chemical weapons arsenal, consisting of mustard gas, sarin and VX from before 1991, is less threatening, the report says.
Iraq's capacity to deliver chemical weapons over longer distances is questionable, particularly as delivery systems rely on impact fuses that result in the destruction of most of the agent and the scattering of the rest over a small area.
Chipman said in the event of an attack, civilian casualties would run to the hundreds, possibly a thousand.
The greatest danger posed by Iraq's weapons of mass destruction is through attack by special forces or terrorists on civilian targets, but it remains unclear whether Saddam's officers would be prepared to follow their president "down a suicide path", the report says.
"Aside from conventional military munitions, delivery of biological weapons by individuals or small groups acting as commandos or terrorists remains a plausible threat that is very difficult to defend against," Chipman said.
The IISS, which draws on information provided by governments and international bodies but which has produced its reports independently for the past 40 years, declined to advocate any particular course to counter the threat posed by Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
"Wait and the threat may grow. Strike and the threat may be used," it said, warning that the re-introduction of U.N. inspection teams would restrict but not eliminate the threat.
