06 September 2005
Iran's Strategic Weapons Programmes - A Net Assessment
On Tuesday 6 September 2005, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) released its latest Strategic Dossier, entitled Iran’s Strategic Weapons Programmes – A Net Assessment. The press briefing was conducted by IISS Director Dr John Chipman and IISS Director of Studies Dr Gary Samore, editor of the dossier.
The dossier provides a comprehensive technical evaluation of Iran’s nuclear, chemical and biological weapons capabilities, as well as its ballistic missile programme. In each case, the dossier includes a detailed history of Iran’s efforts to develop strategic capabilities, including political motivations, technical accomplishments and difficulties, and sources of external assistance. On the basis of this analysis, the dossier provides an assessment of Iran’s current capabilities, explaining what is known and what is unknown, and projects potential future developments, depending on technical and political factors. For example, the dossier explains what technical barriers Iran needs to overcome in order to develop a nuclear weapons capability and estimates how long this might take, depending on both technical issues, such as Iran’s ability to produce sufficient quantities of weapons grade nuclear material and its ability to fabricate a nuclear weapon with this material, and Tehran’s political calculations, such as Iran’s willingness to risk international reaction and jeopardise other political and economic interests to obtain a nuclear weapons capability.
In addition to technical assessments, the dossier provides a history of diplomatic efforts over the past three decades to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapons capability, including a detailed account of the EU-3 (United Kingdom, France and Germany) negotiations with Iran since 2003. After Iran’s recent decision to resume uranium conversion activities, the EU-3 effort appears to be on the verge of collapse, with the IAEA likely to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council for further action. The dossier assesses different scenarios for Security Council action and Iranian reaction and examines the benefits and risks of ‘catastrophic options’ including the use of military force.
The IISS does not advocate any particular policy option for dealing with the Iranian nuclear issue. Rather, the objective of Iran’s Strategic Weapons Programmes – A Net Assessment is to assess, as accurately and dispassionately as possible, Iran’s capabilities and to evaluate the pros and cons of different policy options in order to foster a well-informed public debate.
