International Institute for Strategic Studies Strategic Comments 2006

The International Institute for Strategic Studies

Sunday 08 November 2009

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Strategic Comments

Strategic Comments 2006

Strategic Comments Volume 12 - 2006

Volume 12 – Issue 10 The Baker–Hamilton ReportThe Iraq Study Group’s insinuation that the situation in Iraq was more bloodily chaotic than the Bush administration had allowed; the assessment that American forces had not stemmed the violence and could not be expected to do so; the proposal to withdraw most troops in a little over a year regardless of what the Iraqi government does; and the endorsement of a highly detailed ‘diplomatic offensive’ all amounted to a comprehensive repudiation of...
Volume 12 – Issue 9 Israeli military calculations towards IranIran’s apparent interest in a nuclear weapons capability, which it denies, has sparked concerns in Israel mirroring those of the United States, the Gulf Cooperation Council, France, Germany and the United Kingdom. Yet there is a unique edge to Israel’s worries: the concentration of three quarters of its population on a narrow strip of coastline from Ashkelon to Haifa makes it extremely vulnerable to nuclear strikes. Israel’s presumed...
Volume 12 – Issue 8 North Korea's nuclear testOn 9 October 2006, North Korea conducted an underground nuclear test. By crossing this threshold, Pyongyang openly defied the US and China and placed the tattered non-proliferation regime at increased risk. While agreement was reached on 31 October to resume the long-stalled Six-Party Talks, Pyongyang seems intent principally on deflecting international pressure and conciliating China. An internally divided Bush administration is unlikely to engage the North on terms...
Volume 12 – Issue 7 Post-war Lebanese politicsThe recent month-long confrontation between Israel and Hizbullah has broken the deadlock that characterised Lebanese domestic politics since the assassination of prime minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005 and the subsequent departure of Syrian troops from the country. But it has also complicated them: on the one hand, it has sharpened political and sectarian divisions, while on the other increasing external intervention, thus making internal Lebanese dialogue even...
Volume 12 – Issue 6 The war in LebanonThe ultimate political and strategic consequences of the conflict in Lebanon may already be discerned. On one side, Israel cannot achieve the principal aims it declared at the beginning of the offensive, launched in response to the abduction of its two soldiers by Hizbullah on 12 July. But it can expect Hizbullah to enter a process leading to the dismantling and distancing from the border of a major part of its military capability, so long as Israel is willing to accept mutual...
Volume 12 – Issue 5 Turmoil in Timor LesteA dispute between the government and renegade security force elements in Timor Leste having escalated out of control, in late May an Australian-led international military intervention was necessary to restore order. With Timor Leste, which became independent in 2002 after 24 years of Indonesian occupation and three years of United Nations tutelage, apparently on the brink of failing as a state, the question now is how a process of national disintegration can be reversed....
Volume 12 – Issue 4 Iraq's new administrationThe selection of Nuri al-Maliki as Iraq's new prime minister, and his formation of a government broadly acceptable to all factions, represents significant political progress after months of stalemate. However the danger is that politics in the Iraqi parliament and cabinet, locked away as they are within the fortified green zone, will quickly become removed from the everyday concerns of the majority of the population. If the new government follows the path of its...
Volume 12 - Issue 3 US military options against emerging nuclear threatsAs the prospects of Iran developing a nuclear weapon capability become more conceivable, US planners are reported to be examining various military options to deal with this possibility – and there has even been speculation that the US might be willing to use nuclear weapons to eliminate Iran’s nuclear facilities. It is enormously difficult to deny emerging nuclear states – and particularly those that take measures to protect...
Volume 12 - Issue 2 Governing PalestineThe international community faces a delicate task. It is right to set conditions for political dialogue and material assistance in order to compel the Hamas government to make clear choices and then take full responsibility for them. But the Palestinian political system, economy, and governing structures have become too fragile to withstand the impact of a coercive strategy aimed at bringing down the Hamas government and restoring Fateh rule. Full text HTML & PDF (free to...
Volume 12 - Issue 1 Iran's nuclear programme After the IAEA’s Board of Governors meets in the week beginning 6 March and discusses the latest report on Iran by Director General Mohammed ElBaradei, the report will be sent without further ado to the UN Security Council for deliberation. The 4–6 February Board meeting put into operation the two-stage strategy decided by the permanent members of the Security Council when they met in London on 30 January – reporting the Iran file to the UN in New...

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