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Volume 9 - Issue 8 - October 2003

Insurgency in Iraq

For a US administration whose senior members seem largely to have underestimated the potential for armed resistance following the end of major military operations, the task of dealing with the insurgency in Iraq is complicated by its apparently multiple sources. Attacks are being carried out not only by die-hard members of the former Iraqi regime, but also by disgruntled individuals. Moreover, Iraq appears to have become a  magnet for al-Qaeda, which is seeking local recruits in what it arguably sees as a decisive 'field of jihad'.  Other foreign groups with a stake in Iraq's political and religious future are also making  their presence felt.

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Japan's push for missile defence

The Japan Defense Agency hopes to introduce by 2007 a two-phase, layered ballistic missile shield based on existing United States technology. This will involve a lower-tier Patriot (PAC-3) surface-to-air missile capability designed to intercept cruise and ballistic missiles close to the terminal stage of their flight trajectories, and an upper-tier, exo-atmospheric defence involving Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) boosters mounted on Aegis-equipped destroyers.  These plans represent a radical shift in policy, which until now has stressed only precautionary research and development in collaboration with the US. They are  intended to confront East Asia's expanding ballistic missile and Weapons of Mass Destruction  threats, principally those emanating from North Korea.

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Security Cooperation in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia faces more serious and diverse security challenges than at any time since the end of the Cold War. But problems in responding to Myanmar's political crisis have highlighted difficulties in fostering security cooperation amongst regional governments, notwithstanding their adoption in early October 2003 of the concept of an ASEAN Security Community. Soon afterwards, moreover, President George W. Bush's regional tour underscored the continuing importance of the defence and security links that Southeast Asian states maintain with the US and the West.

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UK defence expenditure

By the end of this year, the UK government is expected to publish a new defence White Paper. Its authors will have to deal with pressure on the defence budget from three key directions: firstly, the extra investment required for Network Enabled Capabilities (NEC); secondly, the cost of peacekeeping in Iraq; and thirdly, cost over-runs in existing procurement projects. With little extra funding for defence likely in the near future, the White Paper will in all probability initiate a reallocation of resources within the current budget - essentially switching money from so-called 'legacy' platforms into operational budgets and new technologies.


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Russia's Asian energy strategy

Russia's desire to cultivate new markets in Asia is driven by the recognition that this will deliver both commercial and strategic benefits. However, the competing demands of the wide range of interested parties - including foreign governments, Russian federal and regional agencies, local and international oil and gas companies, as well as domestic and foreign end-users - have complicated efforts to arrive at a uniform and consistent approach.  Moscow is being pulled in many directions.

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