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Volume 9 - Issue 4 - June 2003

Transnational terrorism after the Iraq war
In opening the way to demonstrating the merits of political pluralism in a reconstructed Iraq, the war may have improved the West's long-term ability to address the root causes of Islamic terrorism through democratisation - though any such gains are still far from being realised. More immediately, the war has probably inflamed Islamic radicalism and thus increased al-Qaeda's recruiting power, morale and - at least marginally - its operational capability.

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The future of the UN Security Council
At the height of the diplomatic crisis over Iraq, US officials warned that the UN Security Council was placing itself 'in danger of irrelevance' if it allowed Iraq to 'continue to defy its will without responding effectively and immediately'. The sentiment that a failure to arrive at a consensus over Iraq would amount to a make-or-break moment for the Council was taken at face value by much of the Western media, senior UN officials and the majority of UN members. Yet, as subsequent events have shown, these concerns were always misplaced.

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The US-Saudi relationship
One of the consequences of the Iraq war has been to lead US policymakers, some of whom now see opportunities for reshaping the Middle East in quite fundamental ways, to reassess the value and management of key bilateral relationships in the region. US-Saudi relations have come in for particularly close scrutiny, bringing to the fore a set of persisting American frustrations and suspicions. On the whole, however, the relationship seems to be undergoing a process of adjustment that might put it on a more even keel.
 
Insurgency and terror in the Philippines
The conflict between Manila and rebels in the south is sharpening. In response to President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo's call to dislodge 'embedded terrorist cells', in late May 2003 the Armed Forces of the Philippines launched Operation Enduring Peace, their latest offensive against the Moro Islamic Liberation Front on the southern island of Mindanao. As evidence emerges of close links between local rebels and international terrorist networks, the Philippines is relying on ever-closer relations with the US for economic and security assistance needed to manage its internal security challenges.

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Challenges for the defence industry
The Bush administration's objective of achieving 'transformational' change in US defence capabilities received a huge boost from the swift and successful completion of the combat phase of the US-led intervention in Iraq. The message from the Pentagon is clear: transformation is to reach into every corner of its activities - including its acquisition system and its network of suppliers.  Unless a programme, a product or a company can be argued to be geared towards transformational objectives, it will find it hard to receive a hearing in the Pentagon.

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