| Deploying US missile defences |
The merits of ballistic missile defence (BMD) no longer dominate international strategic debate as they did prior to the demise of the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in June 2002. Yet President George W. Bush's 17 December 2002 announcement committing the US to a firm deployment date has given new life to BMD critics and supporters alike. The question for critics now is less one of strategic stability than programmatic detail: the diminished salience of mutually assured destruction - the notion that shared vulnerability is superior to missile defences as a deterrent - has elevated technical, scheduling and cost details to the forefront of the debate. Indeed, the accelerated deployment plan does face serious technical and policy obstacles. Full text & PDF (free to all users) >>> |
| US policy towards the Middle East |
The looming prospect of a war against Iraq raises questions about the underpinnings of America's approach towards the Middle East. Traditionally, policy has focused on US interests, shying away from grandiose, values-based ambitions to transform the region. The 1991 Gulf War led to the first outburst of 'utopianism' - the belief that the defeat of Iraq's Ba'athist regime, combined with the proper application of US political power elsewhere, would unleash sweeping change in the region. Having largely gone into abeyance during the Clinton administration, this impulse has returned. On balance, however, it is likely that the realist approach that dictated a reluctant and mostly hands-off posture during the Cold War will reassert itself - even if Saddam Hussein is toppled. |
| The Ivory Coast |
Despite hopes raised by French-sponsored negotiations aimed at ending the fighting, the five-month old crisis in the Ivory Coast seems to be getting worse, not better. Since the start of the fighting in September 2002, rebels have seized two-thirds of the country, hundreds of people have been killed, and hundreds of thousands displaced. On January 25, a deal was announced under which President Laurant Gbagbo would share power with the rebels. But Gbagbo's own supporters - and the military - have condemned the deal as a foreign imposition that makes intolerable concessions to the rebels. The key risk is that the Ivory Coast will undergo a gradual slide into lawlessness and a more permanent division into competing fiefdoms. Full text & PDF (subscribers only) >>>Buy this article online >>> |
| US domestic intelligence initiatives |
The US government's demand for intelligence on potential domestic threats has become much greater since al-Qaeda's 11 September 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, which revealed serious inadequacies in the process of generating usable counter-terrorism intelligence. The attacks resulted from a general security failure, not merely intelligence failures. Yet, in confronting a clandestine enemy intent on infiltration and staging mass-casualty attacks, there is no doubt that better advance warning mechanisms are needed. Recognition of such shortcomings - documented in a recent joint Congressional report - has fuelled major federal initiatives to broaden the range of information to which the government is permitted access, and to render the intelligence bureaucracy more efficient. Full text & PDF (subscribers only) >>>Buy this article online >>> |
| Prospects for peace in Sri Lanka |
Peace negotiations between the Sri Lankan government and the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), which the two sides have managed to sustain since February 2002, have fared better than most observers had dared to hope. But they have deliberately skirted around the most difficult issues - including disarmament mechanisms, the shape of a federal constitution, the concerns of minority groups and the sensitivities of neighbouring powers such as India. These issues now have to be tackled. Concerns remain that the LTTE may be using the negotiations only to consolidate its hold on the northern and eastern parts of the island. Divisions within the government, and opposition from radical Sinhalese nationalists, meanwhile, will increase the difficulty of finding a settlement agreeable to all sides. |
