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Defending against Iraqi missiles |
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Although Iraq probably possesses only a small fraction of the longer-range al-Hussein missiles it had in 1991, the relatively few missiles still in Iraqi hands can be primitively armed with chemical and biological weapons (CBW). With regime change a declared US goal this time round, Saddam may be more inclined to use CBW against both military targets and civilian populations. Particularly worrisome to US planners is the risk that Israel could retaliate against Iraqi missile strikes, based on the assessment that Israel’s regional deterrence strategy could not bear the restraint it practiced in 1991. Thus, the effectiveness of US and Israeli defences against the Iraqi missile threat will be a key strategic factor in any US–Iraq war.
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The Bush National Security Strategy |
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The Bush administration's National Security Strategy, released in mid-September 2002, gives prominence to a long-standing military option? - pre-emption. The Strategy's emphasis on pre-emption has provoked considerable controversy, much of it misplaced. Contrary to many press reports, the administration is not proposing to abandon deterrence or to make pre-emption the focus of US defence policy. Practical and political obstacles will limit the actual use of such a policy - though not perhaps the benefits that arise from talking about it.
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A new refugee crisis in Iraq? |
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There has been little discussion in policy circles about the risk that any US–Iraq conflict could result in an exodus of refugees from Iraq and a significant level of internal displacement. At worst, such developments might pose challenges to the security of neighbouring states and act as a factor complicating the US military campaign itself. While these risks are hard to quantify at this stage, what is clear is that the mechanisms and resources needed to respond to worst-case refugee scenarios are currently not in place.
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Peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo? |
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With forces from Rwanda, Burundi, Angola and Zimbabwe pulling out of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) the war there may, in a formal sense at least, be over. However, the various agreements that have facilitated the troop withdrawals are in many ways imprecise and confused, and their full implementation will prove problematic. The rapid troop withdrawals now underway may exacerbate a security vacuum in the eastern DRC with the risk of a descent into anarchy, violence and starvation. Should the situation in the east worsen, regional powers may again choose to intervene in pursuit of economic and security interests.
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The Iraqi biological weapons threat |
As the US contemplates an invasion of Iraq to put Baghdad's WMD beyond use, it will have to plan for the possibility that these weapons might be used by a desperate regime against an invading force. In view of the broad range of WMD threats that troops potentially face, it will be a challenge to ensure a comprehensive level of protection. Indeed, the specific case of biological weapons (BW) threats demonstrates that preparedness problems, resource shortfalls and policy dilemmas remain to be overcome.
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