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Al-Qaeda: one year on |
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US-led military action in Afghanistan released the Taliban's grip on power and deprived al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, his inner circle and hundreds of rank-and-file al-Qaeda members of a friendly host, a recruiting 'magnet' and a relatively comfortable physical base of operations. The global intelligence and law-enforcement mobilisation, meanwhile, has made communications, travel and financing more difficult for terrorists. And yet, it is also true that the counter-terrorism effort has impelled an already highly decentralised and elusive transnational terrorist network to become even more 'virtual' and protean, and therefore still harder to identify and neutralise. Al-Qaeda is a resilient organisation with a religiously turbo-charged absolutist agenda. It may take a generation to dismantle.
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US national security decision-making |
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US President George W. Bush came to office with a clear sense of how to structure the process by which major decisions on national security policy would be reached. He would appoint strong advisers, encourage them to discuss and to disagree on a particular issue, reach a decision, and then expect everyone to fall into line. When the president is decisive (as after the attacks of 11 September, and as may now be the case over Iraq) the policy process works as intended. It is when the president dithers - when he faces divided counsel and is himself unclear over what course to follow - that the system breaks down. The future coherence of US national security policy will depend to a very large degree on the ability of Bush to act decisively in the face of differences among the officials on whom he depends for advice and guidance.
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Al-Qaeda in Northern Iraq? |
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With the fall of the Taliban, and the consequent disruption of al-Qaeda's base in Afghanistan, fears have arisen that terrorists have dispersed to other remote and lawless parts of the world, quickly forming new outposts there and/or blending with sympathetic local radical militant groups who can provide manpower and succour. One such militant group, based in Iraqi Kurdistan, is Ansar al-Islam (Followers of Islam). The organisation is variously claimed by Western and Kurdish officials to be backed not only by al-Qaeda, but also Iran and Saddam Hussein.
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A test for the US-Japan alliance |
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In the near future, the US-Japan alliance could face a stern test. The issue of how to deal with Iraq, and what role Japan should play in any such efforts, will propel into the open a number of issues that have been simmering under the surface. Japan has so far demonstrated considerable support for the 'war on terror', but Washington's apparent intent to extend the war to Iraq, together with its hardening rhetoric towards Iran, clash strongly with fundamental Japanese interests in the Middle East. Japan's policymakers must hope that the US can clearly read the signals that Tokyo is sending out. The real test could come if a war against Iraq proceeded badly for the US. In this case, Japan may be faced with US demands for active military support, presenting Tokyo with the dilemma of choosing between the relative importance of its interests in the Middle East and its alliance with the US.
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Latin America's tottering economies |
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The frailties of Latin America's leading economies have become abundantly clear. With the effects of Argentina's financial crisis of 2001-02 barely absorbed, Brazil is seemingly edging towards a precipice of its own. Few countries in the region have escaped the resulting shockwaves. Economic stresses have produced - and to some extent been caused by - political uncertainties, but on balance it seems unlikely that region will experience a serious backlash against orthodox economic policies. Still, there is a credible risk that the region's problems could deepen significantly, challenging key outside actors - especially the United States - to devise a coordinated response.
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