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America's Afghan imbroglio |
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Since the ouster of the Taliban regime, US policymakers have feared becoming bogged down in Afghanistan. This has locked them into a fixed approach, supporting the Northern Alliance-dominated central government and buying the cooperation of provincial warlords. However, ironically, the danger of being bogged down is rising owing to the failure of the US to show the tactical agility required to shape the political-military situation in a way that encourages stability.
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The Department of Homeland Security |
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In June 2002, US President George W. Bush proposed the creation of a Department of Homeland Security. While the idea enjoys much political support, the benefits from it would initially be modest at best. Reorganisation on this scale typically creates turmoil. The problem of adjustment is likely to be particularly significant with the new department, which will consolidate nearly two dozen agencies that handle not just various aspects of homeland security but also a diverse array of non-homeland security missions. Nor will the restructuring solve all the US government's organisational woes; it leaves many aspects of homeland security unaffected - particularly those involving the intelligence agencies. However, the reorganisation should, over time, help the US government become better prepared to guard against future terrorist threats.
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China's space ambitions |
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It is rare to find a contestant excited at the prospect of coming third in a race where second place was awarded four decades earlier, but China is showing impressive determination about becoming the third country to send a man into orbit. In November 1999, China conducted the first unmanned test of the new Shenzhou series of crewed spacecraft in a one-day mission, designated SZ-1, that saw the successful launch, orbiting and recovery of the capsule. Two subsequent unmanned missions - the most recent at the end of March 2002 - confirm that the launch of China's first astronauts is merely a matter of time. While Beijing has pledged that China will conduct its first manned mission by 2005, current progress suggests it might take place as early as 2003. Although essentially prestige-driven, China hopes that achieving manned spaceflight will yield practical benefits too.
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Malaysia after Mahathir |
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Malaysia has entered a phase of political transition. In late June, long-serving Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad dramatically announced his impending resignation. The prospect now is that he will stay in office until October 2003, to be succeeded Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. While Malaysia's foreign policy is likely to become less prickly, there are unlikely to be drastic changes in domestic policy. Compared with Mahathir, Badawi's leadership is likely to be measured, and built on consensus rather than vision and drive. In comparison with Mahathir, Abdullah may appear colourless and vacillating. It is also possible that Abdullah's high ethical standards and apparent disdain for 'money politics' could disadvantage him in the face of future leadership challenges from other senior party figures, undermining his chances of being other than a transitional leader.
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Cooperative science and non-proliferation |
US President George W. Bush's 'axis of evil' speech in January 2002, his administration's conflation of the terrorism and WMD threats, and speculation about an imminent US attack on Iraq designed to neutralise that country's putative WMD capabilities, have all placed proliferation issues at the centre of foreign policy debate. Discussions have focused primarily on US policy towards the Middle East and East Asia, options for the use of military force, and the evolving doctrine of pre-emption in dealing with WMD threats. Perhaps unavoidably, this has tended to obscure successful initiatives that may operate at a lower level. One such initiative involves the Moscow-based International Science and Technology Center (ISTC) and the Kiev-based Science and Technology Center in Ukraine (STCU), which aim to prevent former Soviet weapons scientists transferring their expertise to countries suspected of engaging in weapons proliferation and development by offering them research grants and the prospect of sustained employment in a civilian area of science. The ISTC and STCU are ongoing experiments adapting to changing strategic priorities.
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