Volume 8 - Issue 4 - May, 2002

Current speculation over possible US military intervention to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein suggests that 'regime change' in Baghdad is more likely to be brought about in the near future by external intervention than by internal conspiracy. It is worth considering, therefore, what might follow from such action. Much that may occur in the wake of military action cannot be predicted. However, given the enormous problems associated with any attempt to 'refound' Iraqi politics, it is clear that the occupying power would have to work through the existing forces of Iraqi political society – some openly opposed to the current regime, some closely allied to it and others deeply ambivalent.

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No terrorist atrocities on the scale of the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon have occurred since 11 September. The military campaign in Afghanistan and the post-11 September global counter-terrorist mobilisation have probably compromised al-Qaeda's operational capability. The strategic attention of the US has thus expanded from countering transnational terrorism to stemming the threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). President George W. Bush confirmed this policy evolution when he included Iraq, Iran and North Korea in an 'axis of evil' in his 29 January State of the Union message. At the same time, fuelled by broader concerns about American unilateralism, Washington's European allies and partners have re-asserted their preference for diplomacy in handling threats that the US tends to consider more amenable to being neutralised through force or threatened force. These transatlantic differences in threat perceptions and responses have potentially significant implications for the campaign against transnational terrorism, dealing with 'rogue states' and the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Most gaps, however, are not unbridgeable.

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Since 11 September, several South-east Asian countries – particularly Malaysia, the Philippines and Singapore – that were already worried about Islamic extremism have responded positively to Washington's calls for cooperation in its campaign against terrorism. However, Indonesian President Megawati Sukarnoputri's government has proved considerably less cooperative, despite growing evidence that local Islamic extremists are linked not only to violent militants in neighbouring states, but also to al-Qaeda. Jakarta's reluctance – or inability – to cooperate has been a source of anxiety and frustration for the US and other South-east Asian countries.

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Venezuela is continuing to suffer the political turmoil that dramatically manifested itself on 12 April 2002, when a military-backed coup temporarily removed President Hugo Chávez from office. Although the coup ended in failure, it marked the start of a new era in Venezuelan politics. Previously disorganised opposition groups are increasingly confident and determined to check what they see as Chávez's political excesses. In trying to head off the possibility of another attempt to oust him – constitutionally or by force – Chávez is having to adopt a much more conciliatory stance toward the opposition and on policy matters. The key question is whether Venezuelan politics have become too polarised for these tactics to succeed over the medium term.

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This year will see further work on the 'Convention on Prohibitions or Restrictions on the Use of Certain Conventional Weapons which May be Deemed to be Excessively Injurious or to have Indiscriminate Effects' (CCW). The Second Review Conference of the CCW, held in Geneva from 11–21 December 2001, provided a rare success in what was otherwise a difficult and disappointing year for multilateral arms control and disarmament.

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