Volume 8 - Issue 3 - April, 2002

Washington has made clear its desire for 'regime change' in Iraq, seeing Saddam Hussein's removal as the way to reduce perceived Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) threats emanating from that country. To achieve this, the US would have to plan an invasion resembling Operation Desert Storm and involving around 200,000 troops. Other options, such as using more limited force in conjunction with aid to the Iraqi opposition, appeal because they aim to replicate tactics used successfully against the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, in the Iraqi context, such tactics would be unlikely to work.

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It is hard to see much room for dramatic progress on either nuclear or missile issues between the United States and North Korea. For the time being, both sides may be content with an awkward status quo in which aid to Pyongyang continues; North Korean plutonium production and missile tests are frozen; and diplomats begin again to talk. However, this will be difficult to sustain over time. Pyongyang may not be able to resist the temptations of brinkmanship. The US, meanwhile, may seek to pressure or punish Pyongyang, provoking a strong reaction. A confrontation between the two is not inevitable, but all the ingredients for crisis are there.

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Conflict between conservative and reformist camps is the primary characteristic of Iranian politics. Iran's president, Mohammed Khatami, has been unable to implement any meaningful political reforms demanded by the vast majority of the electorate and his popularity is beginning to suffer. Conservatives have managed to intimidate many within the reformist camp, which nonetheless generally refuses to be cowed. The effects of Iran's policy gridlock are evident in a faltering economy, but key aspects of foreign policy have also become increasingly subject to the political struggle.

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The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), completed by the Bush administration in early January 2002, sets out perceptions of military threats to the United States and the role of nuclear weapons in upholding US national security. In early March, excerpts from the classified report were leaked to the press. The extracts included alleged new and disturbing developments in US nuclear policy, such as a new targeting policy that would allow for the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states, and consideration of the pre-emptive launch of nuclear weapons to counter the use of chemical or biological weapons against the US. In addition, reports suggested that the Bush administration was preparing to develop a new generation of nuclear weapons to fulfil a wider variety of purposes, resume nuclear testing, and deepen the integration of nuclear and non-nuclear weaponry in US force planning as one part of what the NPR refers to as a 'New Triad'.

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