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Volume 8 - Issue 2 - March, 2002

India’s communal clashes
The Hindu–Muslim violence that has followed late February’s massacre by local Muslims of Hindu pilgrims passing through Godhra has so far remained largely confined to Gujarat state. Although at least 500 people had died as of early March, the violence has been smaller in scale than that which followed the destruction of the Ayodhya mosque by Hindu-nationalists in 1992. Then, nation-wide carnage left 3,000 dead. Still, the consequences of Godhra may be greater. The violence exposes deep problems within both the ruling coalition government in New Delhi and the Bharatiya Janata Party that leads it. The events have undermined claims that Hindu-nationalist forces no longer pose a challenge to India’s secular, pluralist and democratic order.

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The US defence budget debate
The Bush administration’s budget for fiscal year (FY) 2003 includes the largest increase in defence spending – about $48bn – since the beginning of the Reagan administration. Judging from early congressional hearings, however, the increase is not enough to satisfy the demands of the military services or of defence advocates in Congress. Indeed, properly calculated, the funds available for new projects are about half the headline increase. The budget has done little to resolve ongoing debates about procurement levels, or the tension between transformation and recapitalisation.

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Defence priorities in the anti-terrorism campaign
Each conflict in which the US engages brings newly-developed weapon systems to the fore. The campaign in Afghanistan against al-Qaeda and Taliban forces is proving to be no different, with pilotless aircraft and satellite-guided bombs making decisive contributions to the military offensive. The US is set to place increased emphasis not only on capabilities that specifically counter the threat of terrorist attacks on US interests, but also on capabilities that ensure greater precision in the use and projection of force; more comprehensive and actionable forms of intelligence; and more flexible platforms. US allies have also begun to review their requirements in these regards.

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Milosevic in The Hague
On 12 February 2002, former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic went on trial at the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia in The Hague. He is charged with three sets of crimes, related to the fighting in Croatia in 1991–92, in Bosnia between 1992 and 1995, and the fighting in Kosovo from January to June 1999. There will be a single trial covering all charges from all of these episodes. In a trial of such complexity, which the prosecutor expects to last about two years, it is unlikely that there will be an overwhelming victory for either side. Not all of the allegations against Milosevic will be proved. Neither, however, is it easy to see Milosevic retiring peacefully to Belgrade.

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Israeli-Palestinian impasse
The cycle of Israeli–Palestinian violence, and the hostility of rhetoric accompanying it on both sides, worsened markedly in late February and early March. A year after being elected Israeli prime minister, Ariel Sharon faces much the same situation he confronted upon taking office. His diverse National Unity ruling coalition’s survival has been more a function of its internal dynamics and political balances than a reflection of effective responses to the persisting crisis. The current spate of violence has, however, raised questions about how long the present situation will continue.

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