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NATO after the Prague summit |
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NATO's Prague summit, on 21-22 November 2002, was a modest success. A confrontation over Iraq was avoided because US President George W. Bush's decision to take the issue to the UN both narrowed the transatlantic rift and put off the immediate prospect of military action. The challenge of a yawning capabilities gap between 21st-century US forces and under-funded, Cold War-configured European forces was met with specific, albeit modest, commitments from European members to fill shortfalls. Finally, NATO leaders issued invitations to seven candidates, including the three Baltic republics, to join the alliance by 2004 - without apparently damaging the recently cordial and newly formalised relationship with Russia. Still, many questions over NATO's functional evolution remain to be answered.
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Invading Iraq |
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Even as UN weapons inspectors carry out their work in Iraq, and the UN Security Council digests Baghdad's declaration concerning WMD programmes, the US military build-up in the Gulf is continuing. With the threat of force against Baghdad still the lynchpin of US policy, there is increasing speculation about the planning for a potential invasion. Throughout recent months, major US newspapers have carried similar stories - often on the same day - detailing a possible invasion plan, said to involve about 250,000 US troops and smaller contributions from allies such as the UK. Although such revelations may be orchestrated leaks designed to mislead and throw Iraq off guard, they do, on balance, reflect the evolving planning debate. They point to an invasion plan that combines classic, brute-strength tactics with more innovative approaches.
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A settlement on Cyprus? |
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The EU summit in Copenhagen, held on 12-13 December 2002, marked the beginning of what could be the final chapter of nearly three decades of international efforts to reunite the divided island of Cyprus. In its summit declaration, the EU effectively gave the Greek and Turkish Cypriots until 28 February 2003 to reach an agreement or face the prospect of the Greek Cypriot south of the island entering the EU on its own in May 2004 - a move that would threaten to make the partition of the island permanent and deal a serious blow to Turkey's hopes of eventual accession. While the move has focused minds on all sides, time is very short and the signs are not encouraging.
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Aceh's ceasefire agreement |
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On 9 December 2002, Indonesia's government and the Free Aceh Movement signed a ceasefire agreement that raised hopes for a resolution of the country's most serious separatist rebellion. Managing various domestic conflicts has been a key challenge for President Megawati Sukarnoputri since she took office in July 2001, but her efforts to end rebellions in Aceh and Papua have largely failed, not least because of the armed forces' continuing emphasis on a hard-line response to separatism. This month's ceasefire agreement in Aceh has thus been welcomed as a significant step forward. However, implementing the agreement will prove problematic on both sides and its viability remains open to doubt.
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North Korea's economic reforms |
Recent events have underlined the significance of mounting economic pressures at home in influencing North Korea's behaviour abroad: faced with a decrepit economy, missile sales are an attractive source of foreign exchange earnings; while Pyongyang's nuclear programme is seen as a key asset through which to extract economic concessions from a nervous outside world. In the second half of 2002, there were signs that economic difficulties had reached such a point that the leadership was prompted to make what appeared to mark a major shift in policy. However, the hap-hazard measures will do little to turn around the country's failing economy, and are therefore equally unlikely to exert any beneficial effects on North Korea's international behaviour in the foreseeable future.
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