|
Somalia and the 'war' on terrorism |
|
Somalia’s persistent institutional weakness, coupled with known al-Qaeda connections to the country, makes it susceptible to '‘hijacking' by al-Qaeda. Major US action there is unlikely, however. Present US policy towards Somalia is essentially preventative. With foreign assistance and diplomatic support, Washington may choose to encourage the political and economic development of the self-declared Somali political entities as 'building blocks' for a more cohesive polity that would allow more effective counter-terrorist cooperation in the future.
Full text & PDF (free to all users) >>>
|
|
China's response to missile defences |
|
Washington’s decision in December 2001 to announce its intention to withdraw from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty within six months has heaped uncertainties onto US–China relations. Beijing is being asked to accept that missile defence is now a strategic fait accompli and is consequently considering how to calibrate its response. Washington has been careful to initiate a dialogue with Beijing on missile defence issues. The quality of these discussions will have a significant impact on the precise nature of Beijing’s response, and, more broadly, the extent to which the two sides can reach an understanding that stabilises currently hazardous fluctuations in their strategic relations.
Full text & PDF (subscribers only) >>>
Buy this article online >>>
|
|
Yemen under pressure |
|
Since September, Yemen has been at pains to be seen as cooperating with the US-led international anti-terrorism campaign. In doing so, it has largely been driven by self-interest. Sana’a is anxious to avoid US military intervention of the kind seen in Afghanistan; wishes to deflect the possibility of deep engagement by outside intelligence and law enforcement agencies in Yemen’s internal affairs; sees an opportunity to secure economic assistance from the US; and aims to use the overarching imperative of the anti-terrorism drive to further its domestic agenda.
Full text & PDF (subscribers only) >>>
Buy this article online >>>
|
|
Argentina after the crash |
|
Argentina has far from snatched itself out of the economic crisis and political turmoil crisis into which it plunged dramatically in December. Indeed, there is scope for the situation to worsen. The country’s predicament is of a different order of magnitude than most other currency crises of recent years. The effects of the decision to devalue the peso under immense economic pressure will prove extremely traumatic. Prompt support from official lenders will be vital if renewed political chaos is to be avoided.
Full text & PDF (subscribers only) >>>
Buy this article online >>>
|
|
Zimbabwe's pivotal election |
|
In Zimbabwe's presidential election, scheduled for 9–10 March, the long-serving incumbent, Robert Mugabe will face his most credible challenger to date in the shape of Morgan Tsvangirai of the Movement for Democratic Change. The threat has reinforced Mugabe's resort to authoritarian measures. There is little optimism internationally that the poll will be free and fair. Apparently impervious to Western criticism, Mugabe has fended off the low-key approaches of regional powers reluctant to adopt a confrontational approach. Meanwhile, a marked deterioration in economic conditions is fuelling political and social tensions. There is little to suggest that victory by Mugabe, however achieved, would alleviate such pressures or reverse Zimbabwe growing diplomatic isolation; indeed the opposite is more likely to eventuate.
Full text & PDF (subscribers only) >>>
Buy this article online >>>
|
