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The aftermath of 11 September |
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Following the devastating 11 September terrorist attacks on New York and Washington DC, the US and key allies are focused on how to combat al-Qaeda, the network allegedly responsible for the atrocities. There are powerful arguments to support military action against the group and its leader Osama bin Laden, but any force would have to be used extremely carefully and in pursuit of precise objectives. Caution must be exercised over other military options seemingly still being contemplated by the Bush administration – including possible strikes against military and strategic assets of countries other than Afghanistan thought to be harbouring terrorists. Given that the phenomenon of 'apocalyptic terrorism' cannot be fully eliminated through military and covert action, current efforts to improve homeland defence will have to be sustained over the long term.
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The language and law of war |
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The 11 September terrorist attacks on the US marked the beginning of the 'first war of the 21st Century', according to President George W. Bush. On 14 September, following the US Senate vote authorising use of all necessary force against those involved, he said 'war has been declared'. Bush later defined the targets of action as terrorist groups 'of global reach' and 'every government that supports them'. These speeches and legislative actions, together with major military deployments, move the matter beyond the use of rhetoric in response to stunning terror attack. The formal and legal definitions of the retaliatory actions now being contemplated by the US and others need to be examined. Although the language of war is being used, there is little certainty about its legal implications. One important issue concerns the distinction between combatants and terrorists. It would be a serious setback in the development of the law of armed conflict if this distinction were lost.
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The Good Friday Agreement |
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The Northern Ireland peace process has faced a daunting summer, in which political breakdown has coincided with civil unrest. Hard-line elements from each side have pressured unionists and nationalists to abandon the Good Friday Agreement, which inter alia provides for a devolved power-sharing government in Northern Ireland and cross-border agencies jointly run by the Northern Ireland assembly and the Irish parliament. The Agreement could perish over the logjams concerning both terrorist disarmament, or 'decommissioning', and police reform. There remains a substantial chance that the Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA) will decide that decommissioning sufficient to unionists would constitute intolerable republican heresy. In that event, restoring effective devolution under the Good Friday Agreement would be unlikely. The most immediate question is whether the level of violence in Northern Ireland can remain low enough during an open-ended period of effective direct rule to preserve the possibility of an eventual return to devolution under a negotiated arrangement other than the Agreement.
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US nuclear posture |
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The current US nuclear posture review (NPR) should answer key questions, such as how many of the 7,000 strategic nuclear warheads should be retired, against whom and what those remaining should be targeted, and how weapons cuts should be distributed amongst the 'triad' of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and long-range bombers. Factors to be studied include the present shape and future direction of the post-Cold War political environment; wider issues concerning nuclear deterrence, such as the number and types of weapon needed to facilitate deterrence; and, on a more theoretical level, the patterns of behaviour that can be deterred by nuclear weapons. There is considerable disagreement within the US defence community over the answers to each of these questions, just as there was during the Cold War.
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East Timor's transition to independence |
Next year, the former Portuguese colony of East Timor will celebrate full independence after nearly three years under UN administration. With a population of 750,000 and a per capita GDP of US$300, it will be one of the world's smallest and most impoverished states. The UN Transitional Authority in East Timor's (UNTAET) main achievements have been in the political and security fields. An 8,000-strong peace-keeping force has helped to secure the mountain border between East Timor and Indonesian West Timor, which had been subjected to repeated militia attacks backed by the Indonesian special forces. UNTAET has also overseen the establishment of an East Timorese transitional government following elections on 30 August 2001 to a Constituent Assembly. Over the next year, political debate will focus on the form East Timor's constitution should take. While such debates are likely to enrich rather than unravel the democratic process, East Timor will also face great economic tests over the next three-to four years.
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