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Jordan's predicaments |
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Jordan's King Abdullah is being put to the test. The effects of the second Palestinian intifada have spread beyond Israel: Jordan too has struggled to contain the political, security and economic ramifications of the ten months of violent protests. As a relatively small and weak state buffeted by regional powers, Jordan's prime objective must be to navigate the present crisis and hope that a stable cease–fire is followed by the resumption of Israeli–Palestinian peacemaking. Abdullah's nightmare is that violence will escalate to such a degree that Israel sends its forces back into the Palestinian governed areas of Gaza and the West Bank, increasing pressure on him to tear up Jordan's peace treaty with Israel. Even that, however, would not be as bad as things could get for the Kingdom.
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Political dialogue in Myanmar |
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It has been ten months since representatives of Myanmar's military regime – the State Peace and Development Council – and pro–democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi held the first in a series of secret talks. Although contacts have continued, and some 200 of around 2,000 political prisoners have been released, little else has happened. The lack of progress, and the incompatible positions of those involved in the talks, have inevitably reinforced suspicions that the SPDC has merely mounted a tactical response to regional diplomatic pressure and the failings of an economy in dire need of foreign aid and investment.
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Global trade negotiations |
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The World Trade Organisation (WTO) will hold its fourth Ministerial Conference in Doha, Qatar, on 9-13 November. The stakes for the WTO are high. Agreement on launching a new international trade round, offering an opportunity for further liberalisation and correcting the perceived faults of WTO agreements, could be a turning point in the organisation's fortunes after the debacle of the 1999 Seattle meeting. A failure at Qatar, however, would inevitably damage still further the WTO's credibility, reinforcing the arguments of its critics, driving even its friends to seek other means of achieving their goals, and possibly leaving it to drift – as WTO Director-General Mike Moore has warned – into irrelevance.
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Mapping Egypt's future |
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Over the last twenty years, Egypt has experienced political continuity, a strengthening relationship with its key strategic partner – the US – and an expansion in regional stature. More recently, however, the Israeli-Palestinian crisis has exposed limits to Egypt's influence over events and highlighted an increasing uneasiness in its ties with Washington. Economic reforms, meanwhile, have lost vigour. None of the obstacles facing Egypt are insurmountable, but the overarching uncertainty about who will in time replace President Hosni Mubarak has magnified the problems and, more fundamentally, made Egypt's future direction unclear.
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US policy Towards Africa |
The Bush administration's diplomacy towards Africa has already been relatively active. Under the stewardship of Secretary of State Colin Powell, who has taken the lead on Africa, a high level of engagement will continue. Nonetheless, many aspects of policy are clearly still under review and have yet to be tested by a pressing crisis. At the same time, constraints on a deeper trade and aid relationship between the US and Africa are apparent, as are the limitations of the 'anchor state' approach to regional relations.
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