Volume 7 - Issue 5 - June, 2001

As international debate rages over US plans to deploy defences to protect not only the US homeland but also US forces, allies and friends around the globe against ballistic missile attack, it is becoming clear that such attacks are not the only kind of missile threat with which policy-makers must contend. Proliferation of land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), which pose enormous challenges to air defence systems and can be used to great effect in a variety of conflict conditions, is occurring through diverse means. The problem could increase significantly unless current export controls are tightened. Indeed, as US ballistic-missile defences become more operationally viable, adversaries will have even stronger incentives to acquire LACMs. Currently, insufficient resources are being devoted to efforts to respond to this challenge.

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Though a major source of friction between Greece and Turkey, the conflict between Greek and Turkish Cypriots has been bloodless and somnolent, and therefore politically manageable, for 27 years. Now, however, its rising potential to impede European Union (EU) enlargement and increase tension between Greece and Turkey has made solving the problem much more urgent. Greece has made it increasingly plain that unless the Republic of Cyprus in its entirety is included in the first wave of EU expansion in 2004 – along with the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland – Athens would block the accession of the other countries. Turkey has countered that were Cyprus admitted to the EU absent a confederal arrangement between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots – whereby the TRNC would be recognised as a separate sovereign state – Turkey could annex the TRNC and force the issue of legal partition, and perhaps renounce Ankara's EU candidacy.

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Under the auspices of a Norwegian peace initiative, the Sri Lankan government, led by President Chandrika Kumaratunga, and the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) are edging hesitantly towards talks intended to bring the island's 18-year civil war to an end. Both are propelled by a mix of external and domestic pressures, but the political problems standing in the way of any peaceful solution remain formidable. If the two sides do finally meet over the negotiating table, the best that can be hoped for will be an agreement on a prolonged period of cease-fire, rather than any bold political departure. Nonetheless, this would at least buy time in which currently entrenched – and to date irreconcilable – positions might become less inflexible.

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In preparing the Bush administration's plan for future US defence policy, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has kept observers guessing about his intentions. Uncertainty over Rumsfeld's direction has led to a plethora of contradictory reports, with some, for instance, predicting the cancellation of key weapon systems, and others suggesting that Rumsfeld thinks favourably of the supposedly doomed technology. Speculation about a major shift in the focus of security policy away from Europe and towards Asia has been matched by reports that Rumsfeld prefers incremental change, and fully recognises the global nature of US interests. This speculation may be an indication that Rumsfeld is unsure which policies to follow. However, Rumsfeld's modus operandi also reflects a recognition that the coalition-building and transparency urged upon him by his critics has proved unhelpful in past reviews. Rumsfeld's approach has given him the freedom to think broadly and strategically, without being beholden to vested interests, but the scope for radical change in US defence policy is limited by budgetary constraints and continuing strategic imperatives.

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