Volume 7 - Issue 4 - May, 2001

Heads of state from 34 Western Hemisphere countries have injected new political momentum into attempts to create a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). However, progress will not be achieved easily or quickly. In both the US and Latin America, public opinion is divided on the virtues of a hemispheric trade bloc. The two key countries involved in the negotiations, the US and Brazil, are at odds over the terms of any agreement; in both countries, major domestic political lobbies are resisting compromise. The creation of an FTAA would have broad implications for the international trade system. However, at this stage, it is not clear whether the project would promote further liberalisation or simply generate increased rivalry with other trade blocs in Europe and Asia, fracturing the global trade system.

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The angry public response in China to the collision on 1 April of a US surveillance aircraft and Chinese fighter highlighted the growing importance of public opinion as a factor influencing China's policy-making process. While this influence has been evident for many years in the treatment of domestic issues such as economic reform and corruption, the role of popular attitudes in shaping foreign policy has only become apparent since the late 1990s. The trend in part reflects the growing availability of new channels, particularly the Internet, through which public opinion can be expressed. The increasing attention paid by the Communist Party to ordinary citizens' attitudes does not suggest that the government is moving towards acceptance of a more pluralist system of government.

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Since Georgian independence in 1992, Russia's continuing military presence has been an irritant in bilateral relations. Under a 1995 agreement, Russia was allowed to retain four bases, at Vaziani (near Tbilisi); Gudauta (in the breakaway republic of Abkhazia); Batumi (in the Ajarian Autonomous Republic); and Akhalkalaki (in South Georgia's Armenian-populated Samtskhe-Javakheti region, near the border with Turkey). However, the agreement was never ratified by the Georgian parliament. Although the bases have relatively little military value, Moscow has regarded them as a source of leverage over Tbilisi. They have a major bearing on Tbilisi's relations with the regions in which the bases are located.

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On 14 May, Hans Haekkerup, the head of the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), announced details of the Constitutional Framework for Provisional Self-Government in Kosovo. The Framework sets out how Kosovo will be governed for the next few years and indeed until a final settlement on its status is eventually worked out. However, neither the majority Albanian nor minority Serb communities are satisfied with the Framework's terms. Serbs argue that their interests will not be protected sufficiently and have threatened to boycott the November elections also announced by Haekkerup. The Albanian side has failed to secure a commitment to a referendum on independence from Yugoslavia or even a timetable for addressing final status issues. Nevertheless, it appears willing for now to exploit the Framework to the full, enjoying self-rule in a range of areas and building institutions for what it hopes will eventually be an independent Kosovo.

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