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Indonesia's leadership crisis |
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Since his election as Indonesia’s President in October 1999, Aburrahman Wahid has faced huge challenges. He and his unstable coalition government have needed not only to revive a floundering economy, but also bring the armed forces under more effective civilian control while managing the centre-periphery tensions that have increasingly appeared to threaten national cohesion. Wahid’s record on these fronts has been disappointing. However, this does not imply that the most likely alternative President, Megawati Sukarnoputri, would perform more effectively.
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Ethnic tensions in Macedonia |
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A window of opportunity has opened for Macedonia in its efforts to defuse the ethnic tensions that in recent weeks have risen to dangerous levels. The security services have beaten back an offensive by the ethnic Albanian guerrillas of the National Liberation Army, while tentative talks have begun between the Slav and Albanian communities aimed at finding a peaceful way of addressing the latter's grievances. If the talks fail, a new round of violence seems inevitable, putting the survival of the Macedonian state into question.
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The Koreas and the powers |
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The outlook for the Korean peace process remains unsettled. The new administration of US President George Bush has unnerved Seoul and Pyongyang, pouring cold water on South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's 'sunshine policy' of constructive engagement of North Korea, and giving the latter an excuse to slow the peace process. Uncertainty surrounds the actions of other powers involved in the Peninsula: Japan will soon have a new leadership; Russia may host a visit by North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, but is pursuing an ambiguous strategy; and China may be less amenable to achieving progress if US plans for a National Missile Defence system are pushed forward and/or the dispute over April's collision between a US surveillance aircraft and Chinese jet over the South China Sea lingers. Meanwhile, the European Union is planning a mission to the Peninsula, but its aims are unclear.
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Turkey's reform challenges |
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Turkey is facing its most serious economic and political crisis of the last 20 years. Following the collapse of an IMF-backed economic stabilisation programme in mid-February, the government on 14 March announced a programme of preliminary emergency economic measures. Meanwhile, on 19 March, it published the blueprint for reforms that must be implemented before Ankara can begin accession talks with the EU. While optimistic in tone, both programmes lack explicit commitments to key reforms.
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Bangladesh at the crossroads |
The general election which Bangladesh must hold by October promises to have far-reaching consequences for the country's future. A decade of democracy has thus far brought little by way of political stability, economic growth or tranquillity in Dhaka's relations with its giant neighbour, India. However, the outcome of the impending polls could change this.
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