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Post-Taliban Afghanistan |
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On 6 December in Bonn, Afghan factions reached agreement on the composition of an Interim Administration to govern the country in the initial post-Taliban period. They also agreed a series of comprehensive, step-by-step consultations aimed at devising more permanent political arrangements backed by a new constitution. In recognition of the fact that inclusiveness has a large role to play in underpinning stability, a major effort has been made to bring together as many feuding ethnic and religious factions as possible. Nonetheless, the sheer diversity of factions and interests will impose limits on the scope for maintaining a kind of cooperative solidarity. It will be crucial for the younger generation of ethnic leaders to continue to draw on the pragmatism and willingness to compromise they ultimately demonstrated at Bonn.
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Saudi Arabia's political dilemmas |
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Relations between Saudi Arabia and the US are showing signs of strain. The US media has accused Saudi Arabia of promoting extremism and being 'soft' on terrorism. There has been renewed speculation that Kingdom, straining under social, economic and political problems, is on the verge of collapse. The Saudis have countered with criticism of US policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. Although the fundamentals of the US-Saudi relationship are reasonably sound, and talk of the Kingdom's collapse premature, Riyadh has not developed a confident strategy for dealing with the internal and external pressures to which it is subject.
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US foreign assistance after 11 September |
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The impact of the terrorist attacks on US foreign aid programmes and resource allocations is likely to be far-reaching. Budgets are likely to increase, although the State Department's plans in this area might be tempered by deteriorating fiscal conditions. Meanwhile, the orientation of aid programmes is likely to revert to a more security-based focus. Aid conditionalities prominent in the 1990s are already giving way to considerations of what assistance potential recipients can afford in the war on terrorism.
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Central Asia and the war on terrorism |
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Although their contribution to the US-led Operation Enduring Freedom has been vital, there is growing concern among the Central Asian sates that, once the immediate military campaign is concluded, they will be left on their own to deal with its regional repercussions and persisting internal security threats posed by religious and political extremists. Even if the western military presence proves more durable than currently expected, prospects for stability over the long-term depend on coordinated efforts to promote regional economic development.
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US homeland security |
Prior to the 11 September attacks on Washington DC and New York, warnings that the US government possessed no adequate organisational structure to prevent or respond to a catastrophic terrorist attack attracted relatively little interest. Now, the contrast between the determination with which the Bush administration has prosecuted the Afghan campaign, and the hesitancy with which it has approached the new homeland security mandate, has been marked.
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