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Colombia's war on drugs |
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There is strong support in the incoming US administration for the $7.5 billion Plan Colombia aimed at eradicating Colombia's drug business and boosting its economic and social development. But the international community is divided over the plan's likely effectiveness. Many EU countries fear that the programme will exacerbate the root causes of Colombia's instability. They have been unwilling to support a strategy that involves special military units and sophisticated equipment. Most South American governments have also distanced themselves from the scheme, fearing it could cause regional violence to spread.
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Syria's presence in Lebanon |
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Since Israel withdrew from Lebanon in May 2000, a growing number of Lebanese have called for Syria to do the same. Syria's new president, Bashar al-Assad, seems more willing than his father to listen to public opinion, and many Lebanese believe that a new era in relations with Damascus has begun. But Syria's political, economic and strategic interests are likely to ensure that it will retain control over Lebanon. Both Beirut and Damascus have warned that Syria will only completely withdraw if a comprehensive regional peace with Israel is achieved.
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Defence and security in Australasia |
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Australian and New Zealand defence planners are reassessing their countries' security needs in light of recent crises in the so-called 'arc of instability' from the Indonesian archipelago to Fiji. The two countries are now paying more attention to non-traditional security threats, including internal conflicts in other countries, economic problems and population movements. But Australia's force structure remains geared towards conventional defence needs and the two countries disagree over New Zealand's alleged neglect of these needs. Both countries must focus as much on preventative measures as on potential military intervention.
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Iranian gas for India |
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Plans to build a natural gas pipeline from Iran to India are showing signs of progress, as huge gas markets are likely to open up on the Indian subcontinent. With the world's second-largest gas reserves, Iran's proximity to India makes it the best potential supplier of natural gas. Political and financial difficulties will impede building the pipeline, partly because the most feasible routes pass through Pakistani territory or waters. But Pakistan and India, despite their rivalry, are slowly recognising that the project would bring major economic benefits to both countries and could help build mutual confidence.
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Political reform in the Gulf |
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Expectations of moves towards liberalisation and democratisation are growing in Qatar and Bahrain. Although change is likely to be incremental, the two countries' rulers represent the first wave of a younger, more progressive generation of Gulf leaders. In Bahrain, a public referendum is to approve a new national charter, which recommends a constitutional monarchy. In Qatar, the drafting of a new constitution has been underway since July 1999. While it remains unlikely that any Gulf ruler will voluntarily give up the essential reins of power, the reforms could set a standard for developments up and down the Gulf.
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