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Expanding the EU |
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As the European Union prepares for the possible admission of new members within three to five years, political debate is intensifying among its members, as well as its candidate states, over the issue of border controls. One of the most controversial implications of EU border arrangements is that countries wanting to join the Union will first have to harden their frontiers with their eastern neighbours. This could create tensions in the region. But concerns in Western Europe about immigration from non-Union countries will put considerable pressure on candidate states to enforce border restrictions rigorously.
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Pursuing Somalian unity |
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The Somalia reconciliation conference held in August 2000 raised hopes of a breakthrough in long-running efforts to restore unified government to the country. But expectations that the agreed Transitional National Assembly chosen from all Somalia's districts will translate into a viable administration have to be tempered by the opposition of self-proclaimed political subdivisions to any unitary authority. For the international community, the best approach would be to nurture these subdivisions themselves and encourage them to work towards eventual federation.
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Thailand-Myanmar tensions |
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Clashes on the Thailand-Myanmar border between those two countries' armed forces are a growing possibility. Thailand is rapidly losing patience with Yangon's dictatorship over its failure to address ethnic conflicts on the Myanmarese side of the border, the movement of refugees into Thailand and especially the influx of narcotics. Bangkok is now considering direct action against the armed groups in Myanmar responsible for drug trafficking and other cross-border activities considered threatening to Thailand's security. But the Myanmarese armed forces are themselves so involved in these activities that confrontation would be difficult to avoid.
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North Korea opens to the West |
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North Korea's engagement with South Korea and the international community has accelerated in recent months, with the country now moving on several fronts to strengthen ties with those it formerly perceived as enemies. But progress will be tortuous. Greater trust will be needed before North and South can take substantive measures to reduce military tension. A peace agreement is likely to come only after relations are 'normalised' in other areas. But a situation in which the North's behaviour is constrained by its economic dependence on the outside world would at least mark a significant improvement.
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Crisis in Sierra Leone |
Efforts to resolve Sierra Leone's nine-year conflict have stalled. Within the country an uneasy peace prevails, but more fighting is possible once the rainy season ends in November. Incursions by rebels into neighbouring Guinea make finding solutions all the more crucial. For United Nations peacekeeping efforts to succeed, greater commitment and cohesion as well as a stronger sense of purpose will be needed.
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