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China's ambitions in Myanmar |
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While Myanmar remains shunned by the West, the country’s two giant neighbours, India and China, are jockeying for influence in Yangon. China enjoys a considerable head start, but any major foreign-policy changes in Myanmar are unlikely as long as its two most important leaders, Ne Win and General Than Shwe, are still alive. But there are signs of a possible power struggle between their likely successors, the outcome of which could determine Myanmar’s place in the context of broader regional security.
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Reviving Russia's navy |
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Since the collapse of the Soviet Union ten years ago, Russian’s navy has been in decline. But the trend has been halted, if not reversed, since Vladimir Putin took over as president. Central to Putin’s new National Security Concept is the goal of restoring the navy’s ocean-going capability. Putin’s ambitions are aided by an upturn in Russia’s economy, which is making more money available for defence spending. But even if the projected funds are forthcoming, it is likely to take more than a decade to make the entire fleet seaworthy again.
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Crisis in the Andes |
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Five Andean nations – Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia – have descended into violence, rebellion and autocratic rule. Institutions that held these countries together throughout much of the twentieth century have crumbled, while democracy has yet to develop strong roots. Declining economic performance has exacerbated divisions and each government has come under growing pressure from long-excluded, impoverished majorities to grant them greater political power. If left unaddressed, the Andean crises could unravel the entire post-Cold War foundation of democracy, peace, stability and human rights in Latin America.
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India's military spending |
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India has announced a large increase in its military spending that is intended to cover purchasing such weaponry as an aircraft carrier for the navy, Mirage-2000 and Su-30 strike aircraft for the air force and T-90 tanks for the army. Yet the US$13.5 billion budget remains relatively modest for a 1.2 million-strong military. Years of neglect, inadequate funding and inter-service rivalry still pose formidable obstacles to modernisation. In the coming decade, there will be little change in India’s power-projection capability.
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The Fergana Valley |
Governments in Central Asia are increasingly concerned about instability emanating from the region’s Fergana Valley. Illogical borders divide the valley’s ethnic groups, and Islamic militancy and narcotics-trafficking are on the rise. Countries are using extremism and terrorism in and around Fergana as a pretext for suppressing domestic opposition and for seeking alliances against rivals. Such exploitation of Fergana’s volatility risks triggering a wider regional conflict.
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