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Diamonds and conflict |
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International efforts to curb the trade in diamonds from conflict areas are gaining momentum as fighting for control of diamond mines in countries such as Sierra Leone, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo attracts increasing global attention. The Group of Eight (G-8) is likely to endorse new initiatives at a meeting of their foreign ministers in July. But given the potential profits and the endemic official corruption of some diamond-producing countries, it is far from certain that any new measures would eradicate the problem. Ill-considered moves could have a harmful impact on the economies of stable countries where the overwhelming majority of diamonds are mined.
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Defence reform in Germany |
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Germany’s independent defence-reform commission is due to present much-heralded recommendations for a comprehensive overhaul of the Federal Armed Forces. There is widespread agreement on the need for a thorough overhaul of the military. But opposition to the idea of abolishing conscription is entrenched. Defence Minister Rudolf Scharping has repeatedly made clear that he disagrees with large-scale troop cuts or garrison closures. It is therefore unlikely that radical, comprehensive restructuring will be carried out.
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Separatist rebellion in the southern Philippines |
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The escalation of violence in the southern Philippines involving Islamic separatist rebels will have serious long-term economic, political and security implications for the country unless the government of President Joseph Estrada tackles the underlying causes. There is widespread recognition in many sectors of society that well-implemented peace and development initiatives – rather than conflict – are the means to bring stability to Mindanao. Pressure will grow on the president to make this his strategy. But there are few signs at present that he is willing or able to do so.
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Taiwan's military |
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Heightened tensions between mainland China and Taiwan in the build-up to the inauguration of Chen Shui-bian as Taiwan’s president have focused attention on the island’s ability to defend itself. For the time being, the island’s defences appear strong. But it is also clear that if China continues to build up its conventional forces, the military balance will tip against Taiwan. Even if the United States decides to transfer more sophisticated weaponry to the island, Taiwan may find itself in an inferior military position some time in the second half of this decade.
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US military spending |
A wide-ranging review of US military spending and defence policy is likely to follow the country’s presidential elections in November. It is possible that, for the first time in more than two decades, the Republicans will no longer be the party clearly in favour of higher military spending. Whoever wins the elections will almost certainly re-examine US military deployments overseas and the allocation of resources to weapons production. But Congress and the military-industrial establishment will fight hard against the abandonment or scaling-down of big weapons projects they hold dear.
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