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Stuck in the Lebanese 'mud' |
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A unilateral withdrawal of Israeli troops from south Lebanon seems likely following the failure of the Geneva summit peace negotiations between US President Bill Clinton and Syrian President Hafez al-Assad in March. The presence of Israeli troops in Lebanon is increasingly unpopular domestically. But withdrawal in the absence of a wider deal will increase the risk of Hizbullah attacks. Israel’s proxy militia in Lebanon, the South Lebanon Army, will struggle to survive, with only a small number of its fighters likely to be granted asylum in Israel. The withdrawal is therefore unlikely to end Israel’s involvement in south Lebanon, or to stabilise the region.
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Post-Tudjman Croatia |
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Croatia’s new leadership has delighted the West by turning its back on the virulent nationalism and corrupt authoritarianism that had made the Balkan state one of the greatest contributors to the region’s instability under the late President Franjo Tudjman. But the impoverished country faces an arduous task in keeping the lid on nationalist sentiment, and especially in ensuring that badly needed economic reforms do not trigger social unrest. The chatty, avuncular style of the new president, Stipe Mesic, will help persuade the population to accept painful changes. But, even if he succeeds, Croatia and its economy will remain intensely vulnerable to regional instability.
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Pakistan in crisis |
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South Asia’s strategic balance has shifted significantly. India, an adversary of the US during the Cold War, is now close to cementing a strategic relationship with Washington. Pakistan has been put on notice by US President Bill Clinton that its military regime faces isolation unless it changes its foreign and domestic policies. American officials are haunted by the possibility that a nuclear-armed Pakistan may be turning into a failed state. But Pakistan’s military leader General Pervaiz Musharraf is unable or unwilling to assert his authority and prevent the Islamisation of the army and civil society. This poses a significant threat to stability in Pakistan and the region.
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China and the World Trade Organisation |
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The failure of the European Union and China to agree on the terms of China’s entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO) during talks in March could frustrate Beijing’s hopes of joining this year. But following the accord reached last November between China and the US, there is little doubt that Beijing’s 14-year quest for membership will be successful in the near future. China’s leaders, however, are taking a gamble. WTO membership will boost exports and ease some of the country’s current difficulties in attracting foreign investment. But it could also present critical long-term challenges to social stability and the Communist Party’s grip on power.
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Turkey's divided Islamists |
The operation launched by the Turkish police early this year against suspected members of the Turkish Hizbullah has dealt a severe blow to the operational capabilities of the militant Islamist organisation. There are also widening splits within the Kurdish nationalist and moderate Islamist movements. These divisions are causing frustration among younger radicals. Unless the government acts swiftly to improve socio-economic conditions and ease cultural and religious restraints, there will continue to be a stream of ready recruits for Islamic militant groups. It is becoming more likely that the focus of armed resistance to the Turkish state will shift in the long term from Kurdish nationalism to religious fundamentalism.
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