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Taiwan's presidential elections |
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Taiwan’s presidential elections in March 2000 could mark the end of more than 50 years of Kuomintang rule. The elections will have a significant impact on Taiwan’s relations with China. These deteriorated sharply in 1999 after Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui declared that the two countries should conduct their relations on a ‘special state-to-state basis’ – a move away from the previous formula that they constitute one temporarily divided state. China responded with a threat in February 2000 that it may launch military operations not only if Taiwan declares independence, but also if it delays too long in opening reunification talks. All three Taiwanese election candidates have stressed their desire for good relations with China. But Beijing risks becoming trapped by its own rhetoric into launching an offensive.
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Montenegro and Milosevic |
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After the secession of the other Yugoslav republics in the early 1990s, Montenegro is Serbia’s only remaining partner in the Yugoslav Federation. Since 1997, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic has been edging towards greater independence and, possibly, full separation. Many Montenegrins want to move away from the crippled and isolated Serbia of Slobodan Milosevic and closer to the West. However, a large minority of Montenegrins is determined to remain united with Serbia. If Milosevic supported this minority, a referendum on independence could lead to civil war. Another reason for Djukanovic’s caution could be his aspirations to emerge as the democratic candidate to succeed Milosevic as president of Yugoslavia.
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Ethiopia and Eritrea |
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Ethiopia and Eritrea constituted one country between 1952 and 1993, and their current leaders were allies in the struggle against the Dergue communist regime in Ethiopia. However, neither seems able to end the border conflict between them, which in 1998-99 claimed tens of thousands of lives and cost hundreds of millions of dollars. As repeated international attempts at mediation come to naught, there is a danger that heavy fighting will resume, destabilising the entire region and undermining US Africa policy. With their national prestige based on past military victories, neither regime feels able to make concessions, although even complete victory would have enormous costs and few benefits.
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War-torn Algeria |
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In January 2000, Algeria’s main Islamist force, the Islamic Salvation Army, accepted the terms of Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s Civil Concord amnesty deal. This gives Algeria a chance of peace after eight years of civil strife that have left at least 100,000 dead. However, a more radical and ruthless movement, the Armed Islamic Groups, is continuing a campaign of terrorist attacks and massacres, which incur harsh state reprisals. Even more importantly, long-term stabilisation will require increased prosperity for the mass of the Algerian population – something that no regime since independence has been able to achieve.
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US anti-narcotics strategy |
Since the end of the Cold War, narcotics have replaced communism as the chief target of US policy in Latin America. Over this period, various strategies have been adopted, at an ever-increasing cost. US President Bill Clinton has now asked Congress for $1.6 billion to combat cocaine production and trafficking in Colombia. As the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia controls the region where production is centred, the US risks being drawn into a brutal counter-insurgency war. Equally important, drug traders have always frustrated US campaigns by moving their operations from one area to another. Despite intensive US efforts, the average US street price of cocaine has dropped steeply over the years.
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