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The Putin regime in Russia |
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The surprise resignation of Russian President Boris Yeltsin on New Year’s Eve 1999 has left his chosen successor, transitional President Vladimir Putin, well placed to win the presidential elections due on 26 March 2000. Many Russians welcome Putin’s youth and determination after Yeltsin’s weak leadership. His launch of a campaign against rebels in Chechnya has also earned him popularity – although this could be undermined by defeat. Putin has pledged to strengthen the Russian state. Stronger state institutions will indeed be necessary to limit crime and corruption and lay the basis for a free market. However, there is also a risk that Putin – a former KGB officer – will use the security services to keep himself in power.
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The future of Kosovo |
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Following the flight of most of Kosovo’s Serb minority, the overwhelming majority of the remaining population is Albanian and committed to independence. This is, however, ruled out by UN Resolution 1244. The NATO-dominated Kosovo Force (KFOR) is therefore obliged to prevent independence. KFOR has made little progress in protecting the Serbs or establishing law and order, and there is a growing risk of tension between KFOR and local Albanian radicals. Nonetheless, since both independence and a return to Yugoslav rule are ruled out, NATO troops are likely to remain stationed in Kosovo for decades.
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Peace and the Palestinians |
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Israeli and Palestinian negotiators are supposed to produce a ‘framework agreement on the final status’ of the Occupied Territories by 13 February 2000. Both sides face difficult choices, but Israeli military occupation, economic domination and US support leave Israel better placed to achieve its chief ends: the annexation of most Israeli settlements; retention of most of Jerusalem; and no return for Palestinian refugees to Israel. This leaves the Palestinian Authority and its president, Yasser Arafat, in a difficult position. Corruption and authoritarianism are making Arafat’s rule increasingly unpopular among many Palestinians, and failure to achieve Palestinian goals will add to his problems. There is a danger, therefore, that neither the Palestinian state nor the settlement it signs will prove stable in the long term.
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War in Sri Lanka |
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The last weeks of 1999 saw a major offensive by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), which wiped out most of the Sri Lankan government’s territorial gains of the past two years. Partly as a result, despite the failures of President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga’s government, she was re-elected on 22 December 1999 with 51% of the vote. Kumaratunga has promised to seek peace with the Tigers, and has offered wide-ranging autonomy to the Tamil-majority areas. The Tigers, however, continue to demand full independence, which is unacceptable to the majority of Sinhalese. The only hope for peace is finding a new consensus among the Sinhalese parties and some form of international mediation – and neither is forthcoming at present.
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Weather and security |
In December 1999, a public letter from the heads of the US and UK meteorological offices highlighted the dangers of global warming. Among the likely consequences is a partial melting both of glaciers and of the polar icecaps, leading to increased flooding in low-lying riverine and coastal areas, and the flight of their populations. The delta of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers in India and Bangladesh is particularly at risk. In recent decades, the migration of Bengalis from the delta to the surrounding tribal hills has led to six small-scale local conflicts, and these are likely to intensify if ecological disaster and consequent population movement increase.
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