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The East Timor crisis |
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The deployment of UN in East Timor to end atrocities by Indonesian occupation forces and local militias was only achieved after heavy pressure from the West. It has infuriated the Indonesian military and, together with a corruption scandal, has fatally weakened the position of Indonesian President B. J. Habibie, who is seeking confirmation in office by the new People's Consultative Assembly in November. These events are taking place a background of growing economic hardship and mass unrest. If the Indonesian-backed militias attack the UN peacekeepers, the result is likely to be international isolation, an end to outside aid, and increased instability.
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The Chechen ulcer |
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When Russia withdrew its troops from Chechnya in 1996, Moscow expected Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov to establish an effective government and to pursue pragmatic cooperation with Russia. Instead, Chechnya descended into near-anarchy and has become a base not only for large-scale banditry but also for Islamist extremist groups with links to the Middle East. An invasion of Daghestan by Chechen and Islamist radicals in August, and a terrorist bombing campaign in Moscow in September, caused Russia to lose patience. The resulting large-scale Russian bombardment of Chechnya threatens to lead to full-scale war. This could destabilise the entire region.
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US-North Korean détente |
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On 12 September 1999, US and North Korean negotiators reached what may be a historic compromise in Berlin. In return for a North promise to suspend its programme of long-range missile development, the US lifted most economic sanctions against the isolated communist state. In the short term, the effects of this are likely to be limited, as the North Korean economy offers few opportunities for successful investment. In the longer term, however, there is some hope that relations may thaw further. In particular, Pyongyang's cooperation over missile suggests that the North Korean leadership may now recognise that using missile and nuclear programmes as a means of pressure is largely futile. So far this has only other states in resistance, and reduced the communist regime's room for diplomatic manoeuvre.
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Growing protest in Serbia |
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When the Kosovo war ended in defeat for Yugoslavia, it was widely assumed that President Slobodan Milosevic could not long survive in power – especially since this came on top of previous defeats in Croatia and Bosnia. In fact, the former communist leader's position still seems fairly secure, not so much due to his own strength as to the chronic weakness, disorganisation and division of the opposition. A coup by the security forces is also unlikely. Instead, the main and growing threat to Milosevic comes from the 'crony-capitalist' class of businessmen that he himself helped to create. Faced with international sanctions and economic decline, these powerful figures are losing interest in Milosevic's survival.
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The future of submarine warfare |
The end of the Cold War has brought about an important shift in emphasis concerning the world's submarine forces. Rather than investing in nuclear submarines, many emerging naval powers are looking to cheaper diesel craft as a key to their future naval strategy. Diesel submarines have some major disadvantages when it comes to operations in the world's oceans, but they are ideally suited to a defensive role in coastal waters, especially deterring an amphibious operation. Widespread fear of US military intervention in regional conflicts has encouraged many states to concentrate on defending their coastal areas, where the West may now find itself at a disadvantage.
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