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The succession struggle in Russia |
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According to the Russian constitution, in August 2000 Boris Yeltsin must step down as president. But investigations into corruption on the part of the Yeltsin family and its close associates are leading to that the president may suspend or violate the constitution in order to stay in power and avoid prosecution. Yeltsin's appointment of the security minister, General Putin, as his prime minister and designated successor has heightened these, as few analysts believe that Putin could win free presidential elections. The to the Yeltsin 'Family' grew in August 1999 when the popular former prime, Yevgeny Primakov, agreed to lead a new opposition bloc. It may become a question of which will disappear first – the Yeltsin regime, or Russian democracy.
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Protest and the Iranian state |
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The student demonstrations in Iran in July were the most serious protests against the Islamic state since the early 1980s. They were suppressed by a show not only of force but also of unity on the part of Iran's leaders, both conservative and reformist. These included President Ayatollah Mohammed, who since his election in 1997 has been pressing for greater cultural freedom. The July events show that, for the moment at least, political conflict in Iran can be kept within the bounds of the constitution. However, with socio-economic problems and demands for change growing, and Islamic extremists ready to use force to defend the system, it is how long domestic order can be maintained.
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Syria after Assad |
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Syrian President Hafez al-Assad's to achieve peace with Israel may be motivated in part by domestic succession. The ailing 68-year-old leader appears to be grooming his son Bashar to assume the principal share of power. However, at 34 years of age, Bashar is too young to succeed to the presidency. Furthermore, he lacks a strong support base in the military or administration. Fears of a power struggle after Assad's death are heightened by Syria's deep communal and ethnic divisions. Assad's regime is dominated by members of his own Alawi minority community; with the leader gone, the majority Sunnis may try to regain their traditional supremacy.
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Peace in the Congo |
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In late August 1999, rebels in the 'Democratic Republic of Congo' finally agreed to sign a cease-fire. This is the step towards a peace settlement already agreed in principle by the main international participants in the Congolese civil war. However, this is far from meaning that the Congo will be reunited. Different rebel groups are in conflict not just with Kinshasa but also with each other, as are their backers, Rwanda and Uganda. Rwanda's Tutsi-dominated regime is determined to defeat the Hutu militia, now based in eastern Congo, that carried out the anti-Tutsi genocide in Rwanda in 1994. The international participants in the war are also accruing massive profits from Congo's raw materials, are determined to continue doing so.
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Air-power over Kosovo |
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NATO's Kosovo campaign is being hailed as the first time that air-power alone has won a war, and therefore as a historic. The shattering effect of NATO weapons on Yugoslavia's transport and economic infrastructure was achieved without the loss of a single NATO life. Although the conflict proved the overwhelming superiority of US military technology, claims that the campaign was won solely by air-power are misleading. NATO aircraft only inflicted serious damage on Yugoslav ground forces when soldiers from the NATO-backed Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) forced them into the open to fight. Furthermore, ending ethnic cleansing required the introduction of NATO ground troops.
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