Volume 5 - Issue 6 - July 1999

The fighting between India and Pakistan in disputed Kashmir in May-July was the most serious clash between the two countries since the war of 1971. It was made even more dangerous by the fact that both countries are now nuclear powers. The confrontation began when hundreds of Pakistani troops, Kashmiri insurgents and Islamist militants crossed the Line of Control between Pakistani- and Indian-controlled Kashmir, and occupied ridges overlooking India's main supply route. In the end, strong international pressure, especially from the US, forced the Pakistanis to withdraw, but they succeeded in inflicting considerable damage on the Indian army and in putting Kashmir back on the international agenda. India, however, refuses to allow any outside mediation in the Kashmir dispute, and for the foreseeable future it will remain a potential source of conflict between the two countries.

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The decision at the European Union's Cologne Summit to move further towards a Common Foreign and Security Policy is only the latest in a series of such attempts. This effort, however, is the most serious to date, largely because of strong UK backing. Previous UK governments had always opposed common European defence policy for fear of weakening transatlantic links, but the Labour which took power in May 1997 hopes that this initiative will help to place the UK at the heart of European developments, despite British hesitancy over joining the European currency. The creation of strong European military capabilities is, however, a long way in the future. As the Kosovo conflict emphasised, European states lag far behind the US militarily, above all when it comes to projecting their forces 'out area'.

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Steep population growth is putting increased pressure on limited supplies of fresh water in several areas of the world. International organisations are warning that much of mankind may soon face acute water shortages, and disputes between states over access to water could become a cause of wars. So far, however, such disputes have worsened existing conflicts more than created new ones. The effects within states may be more dangerous, as drought forces large populations to migrate from their traditional lands, leading to increased social and ethnic tension. Various technological solutions are possible, but they are mostly too expensive for poorer states to afford.

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In their different ways, the legal against Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic and former Chilean President Augusto have both set highly important precedents. Heads of state are now much more to face prosecution for crimes against humanity committed while in office. There have been several previous examples – including the Nuremberg trial – of the type of case brought against Milosevic by the International Tribunal for the Former. However, criminal charges against a head of state in the court of another country – as in the Pinochet case – are a new development. If this also establishes a precedent for private civil actions, then these could become more frequent, with important and possibly disturbing consequences for international relations.

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Venezuela's newly elected President, Lieutenant-Colonel Hugo Chávez, first came to prominence as the leader of a failed military coup in 1992. His election thus illustrates the depth of Venezuelans' disillusionment with the workings of their democracy. Most Venezuelans are profoundly cynical about civilian politicians, and angry with the corrupt misuse of the approximately $250 billion earned from Venezuelan oil exports over the past 30 years. Chávez aims at a complete recasting of Venezuela's political order through a Constituent Assembly, to be elected on 25 July, and he has also introduced significant economic reforms. However, the obstacles to change are enormous, and if public unrest grows, Chávez may be tempted to move towards authoritarian rule.

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