|
Sino-American tensions |
|
NATO's accidental bombing of the Chinese in Belgrade on 7 May has further damaged already deteriorating relations between China and the US. These have also been damaged by: US fury at Chinese nuclear espionage; Chinese anger at US plans for an anti-ballistic-missile shield in East Asia; and tough US demands in connection with Beijing's desire for entry into the World Trade Organisation. The latter issue, in particular, is strengthening the conservative tendency in China by creating a powerful economic lobby against acceding to these demands and the country's internal market to more foreign competition.
Full text & PDF (free to all users) >>>
|
|
Middle Eastern peace |
|
General Ehud Barak's sweeping electoral victory on 17 May has been widely seen as a vote for peace. But significant obstacles to peace with the Palestinians remain, and the new prime minister himself seems determined both to preserve Israeli security interests in the West Bank, and to extend Israeli control over Jerusalem. Barak will probably first try to reach a peace treaty with Syria and negotiate terms for an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. This process will also be difficult, though, especially because it is likely to involve at least the partial disarming of the Shi'a militia group Hizbollah.
Full text & PDF (subscribers only) >>>
Buy this article online >>>
|
|
The prospects for East Timor |
|
Under pressure from Australia and other Western countries, Indonesian President Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie's government has decided to hold a on the future of East Timor on 8 August. A free vote would probably lead to a for independence, a result to which Habibie appears reconciled. However, army commanders seem determined that East Timor should remain part of Indonesia, partly because they fear that independence would encourage a rash of separatist movements in other provinces. The military has allegedly been arming local pro-Indonesian militias, and encouraging them to attack supporters of independence.
Full text & PDF (subscribers only) >>>
Buy this article online >>>
|
|
Divided Macedonia |
|
The flood of Albanian refugees from Kosovo has seriously destabilised the former Yugoslav republic of Macedonia. Returning these refugees to their homes as quickly as possible is therefore a political, as well as a humanitarian, priority for NATO. Above all, the refugee influx has heightened fears among the Macedonian Slav majority that, because of their higher birth-rate, Macedonia's Albanians are becoming the dominant force in the state. The Alliance's huge presence in Macedonia, and its commitment to the republic's survival, is turning the country into a virtual protectorate. This is likely to force the West to take responsibility for Macedonia's internal stability, as well as for its external security.
Full text & PDF (subscribers only) >>>
Buy this article online >>>
|
|
Biological weapons |
Advances in biological knowledge and technology have made it increasingly easy to produce biological weapons, raising concerns that these weapons become an important new terrorist threat. For a considerable time, however, this danger is likely to remain limited. Most political terrorist groups would be reluctant to use such weapons for fear of the international horror that would probably ensue. This is not necessarily true of apocalyptic religious groups like the Japanese Aum Shinrikyo, but such groups will find it very difficult to acquire the sophisticated knowledge and equipment required, above all for the effective dissemination of biological agents.
Full text & PDF (subscribers only) >>>
Buy this article online >>> |
