Volume 5 - Issue 4 - May 1999

The political struggle between the various Kosovo Albanian factions has intensified since NATO's air war against Yugoslavia began in March. The prize is rule over Kosovo after it has been liberated from Belgrade, and the split is creating increasing dilemmas for Western policy-makers. On one side are the main leaders of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), which for the past year has been waging an armed rebellion against Yugoslavia, but which is deeply distrusted by European NATO governments. On the other are Ibrahim Rugova and other leaders, who for a decade carried out a campaign of civil disobedience against Serbian rule. However, this group too is divided, leading to a complicated and potentially highly unstable Kosovar political landscape.

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The war in Kosovo is being waged against a background of economic decline, ethnic tension and political instability across much of the Balkans. The West has so far been unwilling to give major aid to the area. However, as NATO becomes more involved, not only in the struggle for Kosovo, but also in the affairs of Macedonia and Albania, Western capitals are increasingly aware of the need to try to stabilise the region. Talk has begun of a 'second Marshall Plan'. However, such hopes face immense obstacles: the great reluctance of Western politicians and electorates, especially in the US, to make the necessary economic sacrifices; and the inherited weaknesses of the Balkan countries' economic, political and administrative systems.

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The 1998 Good Friday Agreement is faltering in the face of a number of intractable issues. Chief among them is the Irish Republican Army (IRA)'s refusal to begin 'decommissioning' its weapons. Unionist anger over this has led David Trimble, the First Minister-designate, to refuse to set up the new Executive, including Sinn Féin, the IRA's political wing. Two other bitterly disputed issues are also looming: contested marches by Unionist groups through Nationalist areas; and reform of the overwhelmingly Unionist Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC). The only hope for the Agreement's survival is a continued close alliance between Trimble's moderate Unionists and the moderate Nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party – but they too disagree fundamentally, for example on RUC reform.

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South Africa's second democratic elections, scheduled for June, will see the retirement of President Nelson Mandela. His successor, Thabo Mbeki, will rule over a country considerably more politically stable than seemed likely during the transition from apartheid. The African National Congress (ANC) will win a comfortable majority, and will govern South Africa for the foreseeable future. From every other point of view, however, the prospects of the ANC achieving its goals are bleak. A huge economic and social gulf divides the Black and White populations, and economic misery is increasing due to changes in the world economy and the decline of South Africa's traditional mining base. A wave of violent crime is claiming tens of thousands of victims, and in many areas is closely linked to rivalries among political/criminal 'warlords'.

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The fall of the Soviet Union set off a wave of enthusiasm among Western oil companies for the development of Caspian energy reserves. Eight years later, however, a more realistic mood has set in. Extracting, transporting and even exploring for Caspian oil involves an unparalleled combination of difficulties, above all in terms of geography, which greatly raise the costs of operating in the region. The current view of most oil companies is that only sustained high international oil prices and huge proven reserves could justify further major investment. This is unwelcome news for both Turkey and the US, which for chiefly political reasons have been urging the construction of an expensive new pipeline from Azerbaijan to Ceyhan. But US geopolitical hopes appear to be foundering in the face of commercial realities.

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