Volume 5 - Issue 3 - April 1999

By the first week of April, NATO's air operation against Yugoslavia had failed to stop President Slobodan Milosevic's campaign to drive much of the ethnic-Albanian population from Kosovo. As a result, more analysts have begun to state that, if in the course of the next few weeks, the intensified air attacks against Yugoslav forces in Kosovo also fail to bring about a Yugoslav surrender, NATO will have seriously to consider a ground offensive. Alliance leaders continue to rule out such an eventuality, but the consequences of a perceived NATO defeat at the hands of Milosevic would be so bad for prestige and morale that no other alternative may be possible. The obstacles to a ground campaign are, however, immense, not so much in terms of Yugoslav defences as because of terrain, logistics and the opposition of Greece and Macedonia.

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Abdullah Öcalan's arrest in February 1999 was a great success for the Turkish security forces. The removal of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)'s autocratic leader has also exposed potentially crippling divisions within the organisation. In particular, these include differences between the PKK's military wing (ARGK), led by hardline Marxists, and the European-based political organisation (ERNK), which has moved to a more nationalist and pragmatic position. Over recent weeks, the ERNK leadership has been purged by the hardliners. The PKK's decline may allow the emergence of a new, moderate and peaceful Kurdish movement. Far from helping the Turkish authorities, though, this could present them with a new danger. A democratic Kurdish organisation would be more likely to attract Western sympathy, and Turkish repression of such a movement might cause problems for Ankara not just with the European Union, but with its most important ally, the US.

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Olusegun Obasanjo's election ends 16 years of military rule and may be Nigeria's last chance of remaining united. Obasanjo – who is due to take over the presidency on 29 May 1999 – is a former military ruler who won respect for handing the country back to civilian rule in 1979. As such, he may be able to bridge the growing gap between the military and much of Nigerian society. However, not only are the tensions between the country's various ethnic groups increasingly high, but, despite its great oil wealth, Nigeria has sunk over recent decades to be one of the world's poorest countries. Early indications are that Obasanjo will find it difficult or even impossible to break with the legacy of institutionalised corruption that has brought Nigeria to its present state.

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On 31 March 1999, the UN voted to extend for one more month the mandate of its Mission for the Referendum in the Western Sahara – the former Spanish colony which is disputed between Morocco and the rebel Polisario Front. If the two sides fail to agree on the terms for a plebiscite, then it is likely that the peacekeeping force will be withdrawn and the territory could return to war. The problem for Polisario is that, since the end of the Cold War, no major outside power has supported its struggle. Morocco, on the other hand, is regarded by both the US and France as a key regional ally. But Polisario does have one means of pressure: a renewal of the debilitating war might demoralise the Moroccan military and increase unrest against King Hassan's regime.

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