Volume 5 - Issue 2 - March 1999

The death of King Hussein of Jordan on 7 February 1999 caused a great outpouring of public grief, but the legacy that he has left his son and heir, Abdullah, is in many ways a troubled one. Hussein's decision, taken shortly before his death, to replace his brother, Hassan, as Crown Prince, disturbed the population and caused divisions in the Hashemite dynasty. More importantly, Hussein's highly unpopular reconciliation with Israel has so far brought neither security for the Palestinians nor increased trade and prosperity for Jordan. The economic reforms and austerity measures on which the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank are insisting may strengthen the economy, but they also risk heightening public discontent with the monarchy and its friendly relations with Israel and Washington.

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The Clinton administration's announcement on 5 January 1999 of the limited relaxation of America's economic embargo against Cuba has, if anything, only increased Cuban defiance. President Fidel Castro's government correctly perceived this change to be not an attempt at détente, but a shift towards a different strategy for trying to undermine communist power through economic and social contacts. However, the US approach seems unlikely to have much success, and communist rule appears firm. Cuba has to some degree already opened up its economy – especially to tourism – and has attracted significant investment from countries other than the US. The US-based Cuban émigré leadership's anti-communist rhetoric and unconcealed ambition for a leading role in a post-communist Cuba contributes to the communists' determination to maintain power. When change does occur after Castro's death, the role of the émigré élite and of Washington may be dangerous, and could cause a strong anti-US backlash on the island.

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Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe claimed that national interests made it essential to provide Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) President Laurent Kabila's embattled regime with massive military support. But Zimbabwe's involvement in the Congolese civil war, which erupted in August 1998, has in fact further weakened Mugabe's own regime, draining the budget, damaging the economy and increasing mass discontent. There is also a widespread and accurate perception among the Zimbabwean population and, even more dangerously, the armed forces, that the government's decision was due largely to the personal business interests in the DRC of a number of senior politicians and military officers.

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Fighting in cities has always cancelled out many of the technological advantages of modern armies. Urban operations have required large numbers of infantrymen, and have usually resulted in heavy losses. The likelihood of high civilian casualties and mass destruction now make urban warfare even more difficult for the US armed forces. Beginning with the Marine Corps, America's military services have been trying to find solutions to these problems, above all by developing new technology. In the short term, this means new vision equipment, communication tools and munitions. The intention in the future is to make great use of robotic devices. But some military analysts argue that there is a risk that infantrymen will be so burdened with technology that their combat ability will be impaired. Furthermore, unless robots are given new and so far non-existent recognition devices, they may kill every living thing in their path, civilian or military.

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The peace process initiated by Colombian President Andrés Pastrana with the country's main insurgent groups enjoys overwhelming popular support. The public's weariness with war, and a series of guerrilla victories over the past year, have allowed Pastrana to lay the basis for talks, and to make a major concession to the insurgents: withdrawal of government forces from a large rebel-dominated area of southern Colombia. However, the peace process is still very fragile. In particular, powerful right-wing paramilitary forces, financed – like the insurgents – by links to the drugs trade, are demanding equal status in the talks. In addition, the 'paras' are continuing to mount a ferocious campaign against the rebels, their civilian sympathisers and human-rights groups. US policy towards the peace process meanwhile is divided and lukewarm. President Bill Clinton's administration is torn between desire for peace in Colombia and recognition that a break with past anti-communist and anti-narcotics strategies will lay the administration open to severe criticism at home.

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