Volume 5 - Issue 1 - January 1999

The Turkish government has achieved important victories in its struggle against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), damaging its fighting capacity and forcing Syria to curtail its support for the organisation. As a result, the PKK last year declared that it would adopt a non-violent political strategy. If Kurdish mass parties do appear, they could, paradoxically, be more dangerous for the Turkish state and its relations with Europe. Italy's refusal to extradite PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan to Turkey has underlined European governments' frustration with Turkey's human-rights record, and increased Turks' anger at what they see as European snubs and treachery. European sympathy for a Kurdish political struggle could deepen this gulf. Meanwhile, the clash with Europe may also help to destroy even the façade of Turkish democracy, as fewer Turks bother to defer to European hopes and criticisms.

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After two decades of exceptionally fast growth, the Chinese economy is faltering under the effects of East Asia's crisis, the inherent limitations of the state-dominated system and environmental problems. Both economists and the Chinese government agree on the need greatly to reduce subsidies to loss-making state enterprises, and to lay off millions of their workers. This could re-establish the alliance between protesting workers and political dissidents, similar to that which culminated in the 1989 Tiananmen demonstrations. Furthermore, so much of the central state's power has leaked away to corrupt local administrative élites and their 'crony-capitalist' business allies that it is no longer certain whether Beijing is strong enough to implement radical and painful changes.

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The Revolutionary United Front (RUF)'s successful offensive in Sierra Leone in winter 1998-99 underlined the fact that President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah's regime is wholly dependent for its survival on the Nigerian-dominated Economic Community of West African States' Cease-Fire Monitoring Group (ECOMOG). After years of costly and inconclusive warfare in Liberia and Sierra Leone, however, ECOMOG is tired and demoralised. In addition, a new democratic government in Nigeria may order the force's withdrawal. This would almost certainly lead to an RUF victory, with incalculable regional consequences. RUF fighters – ruthless even by West African standards – are genuine revolutionaries who harbour a bitter hatred for Freetown's élite and for the West. An RUF-ruled Sierra Leone might become a source of regional instability.

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The planned merger between British Aerospace and Marconi would create the world's third-largest arms firm in terms of market capitalisation and sales. The amalgamation has, however, caused controversy in continental Europe and even in the UK. European leaders, including UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, had been hoping for a series of mergers that would lead to a new European Aerospace and Defence Company capable of competing on equal terms with US companies. The British merger is seen as a blow to these hopes, and even to the prospects for a common European security policy. On the other hand, its supporters argue that it makes economic sense, and that it will galvanise the state-dominated and inefficient European military-industrial sector.

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