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War suspended in Kosovo |
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The deal brokered by US negotiator Richard Holbrooke with the Yugoslav government on 12 October has ended the Serbian offensive in Kosovo, and partially internationalised the conflict through the planned deployment of 2,000 OSCE 'verification monitors'. However, it has not necessarily brought a settlement any closer. The Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) remains committed to the struggle for full independence, and a new UCK offensive is likely in spring 1999. The unarmed monitors would then be caught in the middle, and NATO would be faced with a choice of either withdrawing them or committing a military force to the region.
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Tougher Turkey |
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Turkey's threat to attack Syria for supporting the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has led to a climbdown by Damascus. Syria has promised to end its support and to expel the group from its territory. Turkey's move reflects both a greater regional assertiveness and the confidence it has gained through cooperation with Israel. Angered both by the European Union's refusal to admit Turkey as a member while beginning accession talks with Greek Cyprus, and by the Arab world's failure to support Turkey against Greece or the Kurds, Ankara is in no mood to modify its policies in response to international pressure. However, its alignment with Israel risks drastically worsening Ankara's relations with the Arab and Muslim worlds.
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Russia's desperate military |
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In summer 1998 it seemed that the Russian government was finally taking serious if limited steps towards military reform. Since then, the new economic crisis has thrown all reform plans into doubt. The military is in a desperate state, increasingly badly paid, equipped, trained, housed and even fed. However, suggestions that this may lead to a military coup are mistaken: the military has neither the tradition, the will nor the internal cohesion for such a step, although soldiers may well launch local protests over lack of pay. Only if the Russian constitutional order were once again to disintegrate, would individual Russian units be tempted – or bribed – to take political sides.
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Baltic hopes |
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The Latvian referendum vote to relax the conditions on which non-citizen residents can be naturalised has met a key condition set by the European Union (EU) for Latvian membership. If EU leaders fail at their December summit to extend an invitation to Latvia (and Lithuania) to begin talks, the sense of disappointment in these states will be enormous, especially since NATO membership for the Balts seems to have been shelved for some considerable time. The start of EU accession talks is also a far cry from actual membership. The global economic downturn, the potentially difficult launch of the Euro, and the obstacles to EU institutional reform all make the EU enlargement process problematical.
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Negotiating a fissile-material cut-off treaty |
A fissile-material cut-off treaty (FMCT) banning the production of fresh weapon-grade plutonium and uranium is essential to combating the spread of nuclear weapons to new states and terrorist groups. Long delayed because of opposition from India, Pakistan and Israel, the UN Conference on Disarmament has finally appointed an ad hoc committee to begin talks on such a treaty. The reason for the breakthrough is paradoxically the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests of May 1998. However, achieving an FMCT is likely to be a long and difficult process. Several states are opposed to effective verification and monitoring, and without these measures, a treaty may prove virtually worthless.
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