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Russia's spiral of decline |
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Russia's economic crisis marks the effective end of the Yeltsin era. The rouble's devaluation, the return of inflation and the flight of foreign capital have erased the administration's only recent achievements. President Boris Yeltsin's acceptance of Yevgeny Primakov as Prime Minister demonstrates the extent to which his power has declined. Given the state's weakness, the discrediting of reform and deep political divisions, it is highly unlikely that the Primakov government will be able to stabilise the economic situation. But although the crisis is certain to worsen, Russia is heading not for a civil war or dictatorship, but towards a corrupt and inefficient 'third way'.
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North Korea's birthday fireworks |
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North Korea's unannounced launch of a satellite over Japanese territory on 31 August has alarmed Pyongyang's neighbours and shown that the North has the potential to develop ballistic missiles. Pyongyang is trying to put pressure on the US in particular to give more economic help and to restart the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organisation (KEDO) process on its terms. North Korea's negotiating partners are infuriated by Pyongyang's behaviour, and the growing weakness of President Bill Clinton's administration will make it very difficult for them to assist in the face of US congressional opposition. Pyongyang's policies therefore risk producing not concessions, but greatly increased tension.
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Pakistan's growing crisis |
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The US missile strike against Osama bin Laden's terrorist base in Afghanistan on 20 August took place over Pakistani territory and humiliated the Pakistani government in the eyes of its population. Pakistani governments have played a critical role in creating and supporting the Islamic radical Taleban movement in Afghanistan, with the intention of strengthening Pakistan's influence in the region. The Taleban regime, however, is becoming both an international embarrassment and a source of encouragement for radicals in Pakistan who are seeking an Islamic revolution and threatening the country's large Shia minority.
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A new challenge from Saddam Hussein |
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The Iraqi government has once again challenged the US and its allies, and the UN, by announcing the end of cooperation with the UN weapons inspectors unless the UN agrees to review sanctions against the country. In the past, such moves have provoked a strong response from the US and the UK, including the credible threat of force. But with the UN Security Council deeply divided over policy towards Iraq, and with the US administration distracted by its internal problems, it is likely that no strong action will be taken, and the inspection regime may be replaced by a much weaker approach. The US and the UK will then be faced with a choice between accepting the collapse of their Iraqi policy or launching unilateral and unpopular military action.
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The future of armoured warfare |
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The increasing need for Western armies to deploy armoured forces quickly has sharpened the old tension between heavy armour's advantages, protection and fire-power, and its disadvantages, slow deployment and logistical-support difficulties. The objective is expressed as 'fly light, fight heavy', but pessimists have given this an ironic twist: 'fly light, die early'. The tension between the desire to hit hard and fast and the need to minimise Western casualties will determine the future of Western armoured planning and development for many years to come.
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