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The Kosovo Liberation Army |
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The latest Serbian offensive in Kosovo has driven the Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) from large areas and inflicted heavy losses on both fighters and civilians. The UCK defeat was partly due to the fact that the mass Albanian revolt erupted spontaneously and before the UCK was prepared for full-scale warfare. UCK forces have now retired to the hills, from where they are determined to continue the struggle for full independence. In these circumstances, it seems unlikely that Western-sponsored talks on restored autonomy will achieve a breakthrough.
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Renewed war in Angola |
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With UN-sponsored peace talks at an impasse, Angola is close to a renewal of full-scale civil war between the forces of President José Eduardo dos Santos' government and Jonas Savimbi's National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA). Such a war would almost certainly become entwined with the growing conflict in the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo (DROC). The regime in Luanda has sent troops to help DROC President Laurent Kabila against the Tutsi-led rebellion, and Savimbi is seeking an alliance with the Tutsis. The whole of central Africa therefore risks becoming a single zone of conflict, in which formal state borders cease to have any real meaning on the ground.
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Iran's conservatives and reformers
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More than a year after his election, President Mohammed Khatami's reformist government is facing strong opposition from clerical conservatives whose power is entrenched in state institutions. In recent weeks, they have succeeded in imprisoning the Mayor of Tehran, Gholam-Hossein Karbaschi, a key Khatami ally, and forcing the resignation of Interior Minister Abdollah Nouri. So far, both sides have prevented their supporters from resorting to violent demonstrations, and seem anxious to keep their differences within the bounds of the theocratic Constitution. However, with the economy stagnating and unemployment rising, there is a growing threat that, sooner or later, political differences will spill over into mass unrest.
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Moscow's rule crumbles in Daghestan |
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The Russian autonomous republic of Daghestan, bordering Chechnya in the north-eastern Caucasus, is increasingly racked by violence from ethnic nationalists, Muslim radicals and criminal groups. Instability in Daghestan threatens not just to spread to other Russian regions, but to undermine Moscow's geopolitical strategy in the Transcaucasus, which rests on securing a Russian pipeline route, via Daghestan, for Azeri oil exports. But as President Boris Yeltsin's administration slips ever further into financial, economic and political crisis, it has less and less money and attention to spare for such issues. A de facto Russian withdrawal from Daghestan therefore appears to be taking place, with important implications for the entire region.
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New trends in the international drugs trade |
The bulk of the international criminal trade in drugs has traditionally been centred on organically based products: heroin, cocaine and cannabis. The trade in these drugs has established immensely powerful criminal empires, and radically affected the economies and political systems of a considerable number of developing countries. Today, however, the trade in these narcotics is being challenged by new synthetic drugs, which can be produced anywhere in the world. In the long term, this shift could result in important changes in both criminal structures and national economies.
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