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Divided Nigeria |
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The deaths on 8 June and 7 July 1998 respectively of the Nigerian Head of State General Sani Abacha, and of opposition leader Chief Moshood Abiola have transformed Nigeria's political landscape. Hostility between Chief Abiola's ethnic group, the Yoruba, and the Muslim northern peoples that dominate the military mean that Nigeria's unity is now in danger. And while the new leader, General Abubakar, now has a real chance to move towards civilian rule, this risks dividing the army, which is the country's only stable and effective modern institution.
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Another defeat for Georgia |
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Renewed fighting in May 1998 between Georgian guerrillas and Abkhaz forces in the disputed territory of Abkhazia was the most serious since Abkhaz separatists defeated the Georgians in 1993. The latest Georgian defeat has badly weakened President Eduard Shevardnadze's government. It has led to fears concerning Georgia's internal unity and stability, as well as regarding Russia's role in the Caucasus region. Plans for a Georgian route for the main pipeline to carry oil from the new fields of Azerbaijan to the West mean that Georgia's troubles have acquired major international significance.
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Montenegro and Yugoslavia |
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As Yugoslavia's economic decline and international isolation have worsened under President Slobodan Milosevic's rule, leading political forces in Montenegro, Serbia's junior partner in the rump Yugoslav Federation, have begun to distance themselves from Belgrade and even to talk of possible secession. Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic has been seeking ties with the West and allies among reformist groups in Serbia, while Milosevic has been backing hardline Serbian nationalist elements in Montenegro. Although both men seem anxious to avoid a confrontation, the danger of their dispute spilling over into violence is becoming increasingly real.
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Renewed danger in the Congo |
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Fourteen months after his forces deposed Zairean dictator Mobutu Sese Seko, Laurent Kabila's government in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DROC) is internationally isolated and facing formidable internal problems. Kabila has alienated the West with his 'anti-imperialist' rhetoric and his refusal to allow serious investigation of the massacres of Hutu refugees by his Tutsi supporters that took place during the struggle to overthrow Mobutu. Relations between the Tutsi and other ethnic groups in the DROC are, however, already tense, and Kabila is not in a position further to alienate Tutsi leaders by allowing them to be named as responsible for atrocities.
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Defence implications of East Asia's crisis |
East Asia's economic crisis has greatly reduced the arms-procurement programmes of several leading states, with important results for regional security. Because China has so far been relatively immune to the crisis, it has been able to maintain its programmes, therefore increasing its regional strategic weight and re-emphasising the military dependence of other states on the US. On the other hand, many of the past military purchases by states in the region were expensive, unnecessary and provocative, and the new economic climate may bring with it a welcome new sobriety
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