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Volume 4 - Issue 4 - May 1998

A chance for peace in Northern Ireland

The 'Good Friday' Agreement in Northern Ireland, brokered by the British, Irish and US governments, gives the best chance of peace in the province for generations. For a long time to come, however, it will be under severe threat both from terrorist splinter groups and from the hardline attitudes of many Unionist politicians. The makers of the Agreement hope that, even if the new institutions it has created do not work well, a lasting cease-fire between the main paramilitary groups will buy a period of peace during which hatreds will diminish and the foundations can be laid for a lasting settlement.

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Kleptocracy in Ukraine

Contrary to many expectations, Ukraine has been able to consolidate its independence and establish a lasting presence on the world stage. But the new state is threatened from within by the unchecked corruption of its new élites. Their behaviour is blocking economic reform and foreign investment, crippling state finances, eroding the population's faith in democracy, and alienating Russian-speaking areas of the country.

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The military in Latin America

The late 1980s and early 1990s saw democracy sweep over Latin America, overthrowing or easing out the region's military regimes. Today, the failure of the new civilian governments to raise living standards, limit corruption and establish a stable political order is creating a wave of disillusionment which may give the military another chance to take power. In several countries, military men are running for office, leading military protests or dominating governments from behind the scenes.

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The BJP: chauvinists or pragmatists?

In the past, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its radical ally, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), have been responsible for fomenting hatred and violence between India's Hindus and the country's sizeable Muslim minority. Now that the March 1998 parliamentary elections have given the BJP a dominant position in government, a key question for India is whether Muslims and other minorities should fear state oppression, or whether the BJP in power will pursue a more pragmatic and moderate line.

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Creating an international criminal court
Governments are now moving seriously towards fulfilling an old internationalist dream – the creation of an international criminal court. The genocide in Rwanda and atrocities in former Yugoslavia have heightened awareness of the need for such a body. But while all governments are committed in principle to establishing such a court, giving it real independence is another matter. With the US and France criticising some of the court's proposed powers, it remains to be seen whether the institution will have more than symbolic value.

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