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The role of the Army in Indonesia's political future |
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Indonesia is in the midst of an economic crisis, but there is no sign of President Suharto relinquishing power or trying to stop the corrupt activities of his relatives. As a result, Indonesia's political opposition is hoping that, if further anti-regime demonstrations take place, the Army will help overthrow the President rather than shoot at civilians. However, the Armed Forces are divided between secular nationalists, Islamists and Suharto loyalists, and they will not find it easy to reach an internal political consensus.
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Russia's magnates: competing for influence |
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President Boris Yeltsin's dismissal of Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin on 23 March 1998 demonstrated that he intends to keep his options open on whether to run for the presidency in 2000, despite his failing health and declining popularity. If the President remains committed to this position, and fails to nominate and support a successor, Russia's business élite could split and back rival candidates. Such a decision could also open the way either for a communist victory or the suspension of Russian democracy.
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The growing power of Serbia's nationalist right |
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The rise of Vojislav Seselj's ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party has led to two extremely dangerous possibilities for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY). If the present coalition between Seselj and FRY President Slobodan Milosevic does not collapse, the Serbian regime may introduce increasingly brutal policies towards the Albanians in Kosovo and other ethnic minorities. On the other hand, if the coalition disintegrates, Serbia itself could slide towards civil War.
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Pressure for political change in Zimbabwe |
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Long seen as a model for black Africa, Zimbabwe is now in steep economic decline. Attempts by President Robert Mugabe to increase his administration's popularity have alienated the business community and foreign donors, and resulted in demonstrations and strikes. The consensus is that Mugabe cannot win the 2001 presidential election, and that he may not even survive in office until 2001. The growing wave of popular frustration with the regime points to a period of considerable instability, which could affect the whole region.
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Advanced military communication satellites |
The UK is to take control in May 1998 of Europe's most advanced military communications satellite, theSkynet 4D. With the introduction of a new generation of relatively cheap military communication satellites, the modern battlefield is being revolutionised, and new countries are gaining access to this highly sophisticated technology.
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