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A Balkan intifada in Kosovo? |
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The long-predicted explosion of violence in Kosovo has arrived with a vengeance. Ignoring international pressure, Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) President Slobodan Milosevic appears to have opted to clamp down on the restive province. The move is likely further to erode support for moderate politicians and to increase the militancy of the separatist Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK). The risk of conflict spreading to Albania, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) and even further afield is great. The West may yet be dragged into another war in the Balkans.
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Nigeria's transition to civilian rule |
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As the deadline for the handover to civilian rule in October 1998 nears, there are increasing signs that the Nigerian Army will not only continue to play a leading role in politics, but that military ruler General Sani Abacha will remain Head of State. Such a move will not reduce Nigeria's international isolation, nor is it likely to improve its poor human-rights record. However, with the country's civilian political class apparently acquiescent, Abacha seems unchallenged.
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The strategic value of aircraft carriers |
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The crisis in the Persian Gulf in 1997-98 has underlined the continued critical importance of aircraft carriers as a means of projecting military power. While some countries have decided that they can no longer afford to maintain such expensive vessels, others, including China, Italy Spain and Thailand, are acquiring them. France and the UK are unlikely to relinquish their own capabilities as carrier-owning nations.
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Brazil's future: catching 'Asian flu'? |
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Of all the emerging markets, Brazil appears most likely to suffer as a result of Asia's economic crisis of 1997-98. Asia's difficulties have revealed vulnerabilities in South America's largest country, and a further crisis, possibly prompted by political upheaval in Indonesia, could seriously affect Brazil. Although President Fernando Henriqué Cardoso's future seems secure, there are worrying signs of increasing social problems.
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Tackling the problem of light weapons |
Most of those killed in the conflicts of the 1990s have been civilians. Light weapons have caused the majority of these fatalities. The collapse of the Warsaw Pact has meant that even greater quantities of these armaments have been made available, and tackling their spread presents immense problems. Nonetheless, the UK government hopes at least to initiate the process by convening a major conference in Cape Town, South Africa, in April 1998.
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