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The Palestinian Authority and the CIA |
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The October 1998 Wye River Memorandum between Israel, Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority (PA) and the US confirmed two important changes in the Middle East peace process. All progress will now be formally dependent on the PA's success in combating anti-Israeli terrorism; and, for the first time, the US will have a presence on the ground. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) officials are charged with monitoring the PA's performance and judging the validity of Israeli complaints. While this may improve the chances for progress, the CIA could find itself in a very exposed position, trapped between Arab hostility and Israeli and US domestic pressure, and embroiled in growing rivalries within the PA itself.
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Indonesia on the volcano |
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Indonesian President Bachuruddin Jusuf Habibie and his government, the main opposition parties and most of the armed forces are all agreed on the need for a peaceful political transition. However, increasing mass poverty, and the administration's refusal to investigate the previous regime's crimes, mean that public anger is growing. The main protesters are Jakarta students, but their unrest has given mobs from the slums the opportunity to attack ethnic and religious minorities. Violence is spreading throughout Java, some of which may have been orchestrated by members of the former Suharto regime and their military allies. It is an open question whether the government and the military can, or are willing to, achieve political reform before the entire process is derailed by unrest from below.
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The Iraqi opposition |
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Iraq's latest defiance of the US and the UN has given new impetus to American and British attempts to remove President Saddam Hussein by backing the Iraqi opposition. The only effective mass opposition consists of northern Kurdish and southern Shia groups. The US and its regional allies fear, however, that a victory for these groups would mean Iraq's disintegration and enhanced regional power for Iran. The focus has thus shifted to dissidents from the Iraqi regime and the possibility of overthrowing Saddam by a coup from within. While Saddam's savage security measures have eliminated most internal opposition, his 'divide-and-rule' strategy has also contributed to bitter internal feuding, which could finally undermine his regime.
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Volunteers versus conscripts |
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For 200 years, European armies, and then those of the rest of the world, were mainly staffed by conscripts. In NATO, however, two factors are combining to change this situation: the end of the Warsaw Pact means that the defence of national territory is no longer a priority; and the 'Revolution in Military Affairs' has resulted in armed forces needing more highly trained technicians and fewer men with guns. Alliance militaries are focusing increasingly on and other 'out-of-area' missions. Not only are short-term conscripts insufficiently paid for such work, but political factors make their involvement impossible. As a result, more armed forces are imitating the UK-US example, and turning to full professionalisation.
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The Year 2000 problem and beyond |
As the millennium approaches, governments, militaries and companies are beginning to focus on the possibility that computers' inability to read new dates will lead to widespread problems and may even undermine the global economy. So far, thorough measures have only really been taken in the US and the UK. Elsewhere, it is often too late to take preventive action. Rather than great catastrophes like a nuclear meltdown, the risk is of smaller-scale accidents causing economic and social disruption. Militaries may also be affected by unplanned alarms, and hostile 'hackers' may take advantage of the confusion. While wealthy countries will be able to cope with such problems, and very poor ones have too few computers to care, many large developing economies could be severely affected.
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