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Nuclear weapons first in Russia's defence policy |
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Marshal Igor Sergeyev's appointment as Defence Minister in May 1997 has been a boost for the military leadership's technocratic element. Together with his like-minded civilian deputy, Andrei Kokoshin, Sergeyev has placed greater emphasis on the importance of bolstering Russia's nuclear arsenal and its still-formidable rocket forces. Little is being done, however, to prevent the further degradation of the country's conventional forces.
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Any future for political Islam in Turkey? |
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The banning of the Refah (Welfare) Party by Turkey's Constitutional Court on 16 January 1998 was not unexpected. Under the terms of the ruling, Refah's leader, Necmettin Erbakan, and five other deputies, were expelled from parliament and prohibited from engaging in political activity for five years. The decision underlines the continued hostility of the Turkish establishment, especially its military élite, towards political Islam. Their actions, however, are likely to contribute to a worsening of the country's relations with both the European Union, its Arab neighbours and Iran. More worryingly, the Court's verdict is likely to strengthen the hand of extremists who believe that Turkey's democracy has no place for Islam.
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Myanmar's economic and political uncertainty |
Myanmar cannot escape unscathed from South-east Asia's economic crisis. With most Western countries wary of investing in a country notorious for its human-rights abuses, Myanmar has become particularly dependent on investment from fellow ASEAN member-states. Divisions within its ruling military élite have intensified in recent months, with signs that the intelligence chief, Khin Nyunt, is emerging as the junta's de facto strongman. However, continuing political uncertainty is likely in Myanmar over the coming year.
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Israel at fifty: new strategic challenges
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As it enters its second half-century, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is facing new strategic challenges, ranging from the possibility of a second intifada on the West Bank to the threat posed by Iraq and Iran's acquisition of ballistic missiles. Nevertheless, some 'traditional' threats remain, including the fact that Israel has yet to sign a peace treaty with Syria, its most important Arab neighbour. At the same time, changes in Israeli society are bringing into question trusted concepts like conscription that have served the country well over the past 50 years. As a result, the IDF's traditional doctrine and strategies will have to radically change.
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ASEAN: in need of a new approach? |
Nineteen-ninety-seven should have a focus of celebration for the Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN). The organisation commemorated its 30th anniversary and had hoped to achieve its original goal of a grouping incorporating all ten regional states. Instead, the celebrations were thwarted by a coup in Cambodia, an environmental catastrophe caused by plantation fires in Indonesia and the worst economic downturn in the region for decades. These developments undermined ASEAN's guiding principle of 'non-interference' in the internal affairs of its member-states. In future, ASEAN will find that principle ever more difficult to uphold.
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